2026-10-05 · open

Monday, market open. Net cash / NLV still red at -0.109, $14,034 past the -0.10 line; the only fill since Friday is 1 SPCX share. Red means Rule 3: tier 1 sales. Gross leverage 1.710x red; long-leg band still over. GOOGL $344.52 (+0.30%), nearest written level tranche 3 at $360, +4.49%. MU $1,057.82 (-1.59%). No sell-side target moved over the weekend; MU's finviz consensus slipped to $1,582.89. Nothing came due.

What to do

net cash / NLV -0.1093 (cash -$164,435 on NLV $1,504,002.76), $14,034 past the -0.10 red line.
SELL 200 AMZN, SELL 200 EQT, SELL 1 TSLA, SELL 1 DIS (limit near the bid, day)
Tier 1 in full at this morning's prices. Which tier-1 names is Gabriel's pick; the smallest tier-1 set that clears red is EQT 200 + TSLA 1 + DIS 1 + AMZN 15 ($14,157, lands -0.0999). AMZN 14 lands at -0.1001, still red. · raises ~$60,707 (AMZN $50,324, EQT $9,908, TSLA $373, DIS $102); lands net cash / NLV at -0.069
Your playbook: “"Red means: execute Rule 3 until the metric is back to amber. Choose the sales myself, at my own pace, before the broker chooses them for me." Rule 3 tier 1: AMZN, BRK.B, EQT, DIS, TSLA, UPRO.”
EQT sells at a ~$895 loss (avg $54.01, last $49.54); last EQT buy 2026-08-12, outside the 30-day window. The 1 SPCX share bought since Friday (avg $159.97) has no written rule and is not in tier 1.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
gross_leverage	1.7097x	1.5x red (1.3x amber)	0.2097x over red
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.63x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.97x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
Standing repair (BUY TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 360P / SELL TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 280P) is $18,055.01 debit at this morning's marks (36.110/spread). A cash debit while net cash is red, so the two rails conflict and it is not proposed.
gross_leverage
Gross $2,571,454 on NLV $1,504,003.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-10-05: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$770,597	51.2%	1543 sh, 18 legs
MU	$177,808	11.8%	525 sh, 2 legs
VOO	$122,558	8.1%	173 sh, 0 legs
META	$106,531	7.1%	144 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$100,770	6.7%	485 sh, 2 legs
RDDT	$77,653	5.2%	513 sh, 0 legs
AMZN	$50,324	3.3%	200 sh, 0 legs
INTC	$35,172	2.3%	300 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$9,908	0.7%	200 sh, 0 legs
CRWD	$2,716	0.2%	10 sh, 0 legs
PANW	$2,028	0.1%	5 sh, 0 legs
TSLA	$373	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
HD	$281	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
SPCX	$164	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$102	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level) at $360, 4% away.

All 25 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level)	$344.52	≥ $360	4.5% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$344.52	≤ $317	8.0% down
MU - collar roll level	$1,057.82	≥ $1,250	18.2% up
GOOGL - thesis break, close regardless of price	$344.52	≤ $280	18.7% down
GOOGL - washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$344.52	≤ $260	24.5% down
GOOGL - Rule 8, deploy the $100k crash reserve	$344.52	≤ $260	24.5% down
GOOGL - no chase past $380-390 short	$344.52	≥ $430	24.8% up
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$344.52	≥ $434	26.0% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max, would-I-buy-it-fresh test	$344.52	≥ $500	45.1% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs	$344.52	≥ $600	74.2% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Net cash / NLV, now red	-0.109	back above -0.10 (amber)	$14,034 of sales at this morning's NLV.
Every long call spread against the 90%-of-width sell rule	43.28% is the highest	90% of width	Dec-28 300/400 43.28%, Sep-27 300/440 40.33%, Sep-27 300/445 39.67%, Dec-28 350/500 30.48%, Dec-28 350/600 24.61%.
Dec-28 put IV, the alternate tranche-2 trigger	35.68%	43% (Rule 8 at 50%)	7.32 points. Measured today: midpoint IV valid, DELAYED feed.
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic, the assignment watch	$54.59	$5	Put is $4.52 out of the money; the whole mark is extrinsic.
Program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 of room.
Excess liquidity against the Part 4 amber	75.55% of NLV	40% amber, 25% red	$1,136,298 against a $650,000 floor.
NLV on the week against the 72-hour freeze row	+1.44%	a FALL of 8% in one week	Struck against 2026-09-28's open, $1,482,651.70.

calendar	date	away
Earliest clean sale date for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots if a WRITTEN call is also replacement property	2026-10-15	10d
GOOG print, first scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	23d
Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash has come	2026-10-29	24d
GOOG capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	121d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	159d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put legs 10-11 (+200 sh)	2027-04-02	179d
GOOG lots vest long-term, legs 12-14 (+350 sh)	2027-06-05	243d
GOOG lots vest long-term, leg 15 (+50 sh)	2027-06-25	263d

Spot prices

	last	day
SPCX	$163.92	+3.1%
RDDT	$151.37	+2.4%
META	$739.80	+1.6%
NVDA	$237.00	+1.3%
TSLA	$373.24	+0.7%
CRWD	$271.62	+0.6%
PANW	$405.56	+0.6%
GOOGL	$344.52	+0.3%
GOOG	$341.08	+0.2%
VOO	$708.43	+0.1%
AMZN	$251.62	+0.0%
DIS	$101.70	-0.5%
HD	$280.85	-0.7%
EQT	$49.54	-1.3%
MU	$1,057.82	-1.6%
INTC	$117.24	-1.8%

What other people said

Cantor Fitzgerald on GOOGL: buy, reiterated, $420.
Wells Fargo on GOOGL: buy, maintained, $411.
13 new calls filed, none came due to score.

Every call filed today

who		action	target	when
Cantor Fitzgerald No prior target shown.	GOOGL	Buy, reiterated	$420	2026-10-05
Wells Fargo Backfilled; missed by the 10-03 pass.	GOOGL	Buy, maintained	$411	2026-10-01
Bank of America Backfilled; missed by the 10-03 pass.	MU	Buy, reiterated	$1,550	2026-10-01
Deutsche Bank Backfilled; missed by the 10-03 pass.	MU	Buy, maintained	$1,550	2026-10-01
Finviz consensus Down from $1,593.85 (score 1.28) on 10-03.	MU	Consensus, score 1.30	$1,582.89	2026-10-05
Seeking Alpha / Bohdan Kucheriavyi SCAs cover 35%+ of revenue through 2030; custom HBM4E with Nvidia; Dec 9 may bring a capital return program.	MU	DCF fair value	$1,791	2026-10-04
Seeking Alpha / Multiplo Invest FY27 revenue midpoint $61.5B, GM floor 86%; multi-year contracts add predictability.	MU	Buy, DCF fair value	$1,369.73	2026-10-05
Seeking Alpha / Aseity Research Search growing 17-19% YoY; capex penalized despite ROI; expects 28x multiple after Q3.	GOOGL	Strong Buy	11-25% upside	2026-10-04
Seeking Alpha, five more MU pieces Johnny Zhang, Stone Fox, Quantryon, JR Research bullish on 6x forward earnings; The Value Investor cautious on cyclicality.	MU	Four bullish, one cautious	none	2026-10-04 to 10-05
r/wallstreetbets Body removed; title and score 1 only.	MU	Position post, Jun-2027 $2,500 call	none	2026-10-04

consensus	source	target	analysts

Cost of compute

H100 spot $2.57 against the $2.82 monthly composite. No tripwire.
H100 SXM $2.57 on Vast off 16 listings, 9% under the $2.82 composite, but the eight 3-hourly captures since yesterday morning ran $2.94-$4.00 (24h avg $3.62, 06:07 today $3.59), so the daily print is the low outlier, not a trend. Last week's $2.13-$2.40 lows have not repeated. Cheapest cloud H100 $5.33 (up from $4.50), hyperscaler $7.89, Akash $2.72 unchanged. B200 $7.81 off 21, H200 $5.00 off 13, A100 SXM4 $0.80 off 54. No tripwire, no capture WARNING.
No tripwire, and none is computable before ~2026-11-16: the daily series is too short for a 90-day column.
Capture health: No WARNING; intraday capture fresh at 06:07 today. SFCompute unparsed on every capture since 2026-09-25 (eleven days empty).

Every rate, per chip and per source

Dollars per GPU-hour. Vast is a marketplace floor and runs well below contract rates, which is what the cloud and hyperscaler columns are there to show. Bold rows are current generation.

	vast	cloud	hyper	akash	n
H100 SXM	$2.57	$5.33	$7.89	$2.72	16
H100 NVL	$2.67	-	-	-	9 thin
H200	$5.00	$5.40	$10.85	-	13
B200	$7.81	$8.55	$14.24	-	21
A100 SXM4	$0.80	$2.00	$3.67	$1.71	54
A100 PCIE	$0.66	-	-	-	28
L40S	$0.73	-	-	-	31
RTX 4090	$0.44	-	-	-	64
RTX 5090	$0.54	-	-	-	64

H100 by source. SFCompute clearing price -. Composite is $2.82 as of 2026-04 (Still the 2026-04 H100 print at $2.82; the 2026-10-01 re-check found no later month published free, so no row was added this month.).

source	now	24h avg	day
vast med	$2.57	$3.62	-23.3%
sfcompute	-	-	-
getdeploying	$5.33	-	+18.4%
akash	$2.72	$2.72	+0.0%

The check itself

broken Forecasting pipeline: no run since Friday's refusal; today's 12:45 run will refuse again unless the dirty tree is cleared.
ops/status.py --check exits 11: "latest daily record is from 2026-10-02, not 2026-10-05"; "latest daily record status is 'refused': pre-flight: 204 path(s) under data/ or dist/ already differed from HEAD"; "latest daily record has no gate_examined count: the gate did not run, or ran without reporting. This is the 171f531 shape."; plus "STALE quotes data/options_quotes.db: max(captured_at_utc) 2026-10-02T19:36Z is 2d 17h behind the raw stores". gate_examined: none.
broken Sunday's open run left no rails-log line.
quotes.json and the gpu-spot-daily row are stamped 2026-10-04, so a Sunday run fetched data, but rails-log.jsonl has no 2026-10-04 entry and no report-2026-10-04.json exists. The run label logic still worked today (no 10-05 entry).
known rails.py still prices the GOOGL programme off GOOG.
GOOG $341.08 vs GOOGL $344.52 this morning. No verdict flips. rails.json not edited.

Rails that could not be evaluated

No written rule covers SPCX, PANW or CRWD; all three were bought while net cash was red.
The long-leg repair order is a cash debit while net cash is red - the two rails conflict and no doc says which wins.
stressed_excess_liquidity has never been measured; the amber stress re-run fell due 2026-09-29 and is still undone.
MU has no written level below spot.
SFCompute H100 empty eleven days running.
The 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order.
Arctic Shift returned no GOOGL wallstreetbets posts after 2026-10-03 on any query; archive lag and a quiet weekend cannot be told apart.
Snapshot prior_close came back empty for most tickers on a live session; prior closes taken from Friday's RTH bars.

Where the numbers came from

Run label from the rails log: no 2026-10-05 entry, so this is the OPEN run (rails, GPU pull, forecast pass). Monday, market open.
Book pulled ~13:47Z. 37 rows: the 36 from Friday plus 1 SPCX share (avg $159.97). NLV $1,504,002.76, cash -$164,434.55, gross $2,571,454.30, excess liquidity $1,136,298.18. No working orders.
Prices: get_price_snapshot per ticker, REALTIME. Snapshot prior_close came back empty for most tickers, so prior_close is Friday 10-02's RTH close from the weekend capture (EQT and HD snapshot prior closes match it); SPCX prior from its daily bar. Never estimated.
IV: Dec-28 GOOGL 340P option-midpoint-iv 35.68%, isValid true, DELAYED.
Runbook Parts 2-4 swept on this morning's numbers: every row clear.
No ticker moved 5% or more against Friday's close (SPCX +3.12%, RDDT +2.37%).