2026-10-03 · midday

Saturday midday, market shut; the book has not moved since this morning's run and nothing fills until Monday. Net cash / NLV red at -0.110, $14,614 past the -0.10 line; no working orders. Red means Rule 3: tier 1 sales, first chance Monday. Gross leverage 1.721x red; long-leg band still over. GOOGL $343.25 (Friday's last print, +1.48%), nearest written level tranche 3 at $360, +4.88%. MU $1,069.18 (-2.57%). GPU levels and the forecast ledger are this morning's; the midday run does not re-pull them.

What to do

net cash / NLV -0.1098 (cash -$164,274.58 on NLV $1,496,602.11), $14,614 past the -0.10 red line.
SELL 200 AMZN, SELL 200 EQT, SELL 1 TSLA, SELL 1 DIS (limit near Monday's open, day)
Tier 1 in full at Friday's last prints; market shut until Monday. Which tier-1 names is Gabriel's pick; the smallest tier-1 set that clears red is EQT 200 + TSLA 1 + DIS 1 + AMZN 17 ($14,809, lands -0.0999). AMZN 16 lands on the line at -0.1000. · raises ~$60,814 (AMZN $50,278, EQT $10,062, TSLA $371, DIS $102); lands net cash / NLV at -0.069
Your playbook: “"Red means: execute Rule 3 until the metric is back to amber. Choose the sales myself, at my own pace, before the broker chooses them for me." Rule 3 tier 1: AMZN, BRK.B, EQT, DIS, TSLA, UPRO.”
EQT sells at a ~$741 loss (avg $54.01, last $50.31); last EQT buy 2026-08-12, outside the 30-day window. The 100 AMZN shares bought 2026-09-25 at $248.76 are $2.63 over cost.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
gross_leverage	1.7210x	1.5x red (1.3x amber)	0.2210x over red
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.63x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.97x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
Standing repair (BUY TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 360P / SELL TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 280P) is $18,078.20 debit at Friday's marks (36.156/spread), unchanged since this morning. A cash debit while net cash is red, so the two rails conflict and it is not proposed.
gross_leverage
Gross $2,575,707 on NLV $1,496,602.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-10-03: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$768,261	51.3%	1543 sh, 18 legs
MU	$174,272	11.6%	525 sh, 2 legs
VOO	$122,398	8.2%	173 sh, 0 legs
META	$104,782	7.0%	144 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$99,937	6.7%	485 sh, 2 legs
RDDT	$75,657	5.1%	513 sh, 0 legs
AMZN	$50,278	3.4%	200 sh, 0 legs
INTC	$35,757	2.4%	300 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$10,062	0.7%	200 sh, 0 legs
CRWD	$2,699	0.2%	10 sh, 0 legs
PANW	$2,019	0.1%	5 sh, 0 legs
TSLA	$371	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
HD	$284	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$102	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level) at $360, 5% away.

All 25 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level)	$343.25	≥ $360	4.9% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$343.25	≤ $317	7.7% down
MU - collar roll level	$1,069.18	≥ $1,250	16.9% up
GOOGL - thesis break, close regardless of price	$343.25	≤ $280	18.4% down
GOOGL - washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$343.25	≤ $260	24.2% down
GOOGL - Rule 8, deploy the $100k crash reserve	$343.25	≤ $260	24.2% down
GOOGL - no chase past $380-390 short	$343.25	≥ $430	25.3% up
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$343.25	≥ $434	26.4% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max, would-I-buy-it-fresh test	$343.25	≥ $500	45.7% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs	$343.25	≥ $600	74.8% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Net cash / NLV, now red	-0.110	back above -0.10 (amber)	$14,614 of sales at Friday's NLV.
Every long call spread against the 90%-of-width sell rule	43.35% is the highest	90% of width	Dec-28 300/400 43.35%, Sep-27 300/440 39.88%, Sep-27 300/445 39.24%, Dec-28 350/500 30.47%, Dec-28 350/600 24.58%.
Dec-28 put IV, the alternate tranche-2 trigger	35.65% (carried)	43% (Rule 8 at 50%)	7.35 points. Saturday snapshot FROZEN_DELAYED with isValid false on both IV fields again at midday; value carried from Friday's midday capture and flagged, not measured today.
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic, the assignment watch	$54.32	$5	Put is $3.25 out of the money; the whole mark is extrinsic.
Program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 of room.
Excess liquidity against the Part 4 amber	75.45% of NLV	40% amber, 25% red	$1,129,160 against a $650,000 floor.
NLV on the week against the 72-hour freeze row	+0.16%	a FALL of 8% in one week	Struck against 2026-09-26's open, $1,494,170.47.

calendar	date	away
Earliest clean sale date for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots if a WRITTEN call is also replacement property	2026-10-15	12d
GOOG print, first scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	25d
Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash has come	2026-10-29	26d
GOOG capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	123d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	161d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put legs 10-11 (+200 sh)	2027-04-02	181d
GOOG lots vest long-term, legs 12-14 (+350 sh)	2027-06-05	245d
GOOG lots vest long-term, leg 15 (+50 sh)	2027-06-25	265d

Spot prices

	last	day
TSLA	$371.43	+4.9%
PANW	$403.80	+1.9%
GOOG	$340.05	+1.5%
GOOGL	$343.25	+1.5%
NVDA	$234.22	+1.5%
CRWD	$269.90	+1.4%
AMZN	$251.39	+1.3%
DIS	$102.19	+0.8%
VOO	$707.50	+0.7%
EQT	$50.31	+0.4%
HD	$283.50	+0.4%
META	$727.65	+0.2%
INTC	$119.19	-0.7%
RDDT	$147.48	-1.4%
MU	$1,069.18	-2.6%

What other people said

Goldman Sachs on MU: buy, target raised, $1,250.
Mizuho on MU: target raised, $1,400.
26 new calls filed. 3 came due and were scored.

Every call filed today

who		action	target	when
Goldman Sachs Raised from $1,100 (fc_0404).	MU	Buy, target raised	$1,250	2026-10-01
Mizuho Raised from $1,300 (fc_0324).	MU	Target raised	$1,400	2026-10-01
Barclays First Barclays target in the ledger since the print.	MU	Target set	$2,000	2026-10-02
CLSA	MU	Target set	$1,700	2026-10-02
KeyBanc	MU	Target set	$1,750	2026-10-01
Needham	MU	Target set	$1,650	2026-10-01
William Blair	MU	Target set	$1,300	2026-10-01
Finviz consensus Up from $1,575.88 on 09-24.	MU	Consensus, score 1.28	$1,593.85	2026-10-03
Finviz consensus $426.58 on 09-18; no sell-side GOOGL call dated 10-02 or 10-03 on any source.	GOOGL	Consensus, score 1.25	$426.50	2026-10-03
Seeking Alpha / Louis Gerard Cheapest mega-cap tech; ad-tech structural remedies rejected; TPU/AI scaling; FCF compression is the capex ramp.	GOOGL	Strong Buy, reaffirmed	none	2026-10-02
Seeking Alpha / Yiannis Zourmpanos Q1 GM guide 86.25% is the FY27 floor; >75% of FY27 committed; sustained $200 FY28 EPS at 5-6x.	MU	Strong Buy	$1,400-$1,500 range	2026-10-03
Seeking Alpha / Delta Analyst 30-37% upside on $125-$135 normalized EPS; $150B RPO, $32B customer commitments.	MU	Buy	$1,430-$1,500 range	2026-10-02
Seeking Alpha / Oliver Rodzianko Q1 guide signals slowing growth, MU may be at its cycle peak; prefers non-AI deep value.	MU	Bearish, rating not shown	none	2026-10-03
Seeking Alpha / Mauro Caversazzi Gains are memory price not volume; price deceleration into 2027 then a sharp decline; rotate out.	MU	Sell, maintained	none	2026-10-02
Seeking Alpha / Victor Dergunov 87% gross margins unsustainable for a cyclical; normalization could trigger a sharp margin and valuation correction.	MU	Hold (long-term sell)	none	2026-10-02
Seeking Alpha / The Value Portfolio S&P 500-like returns from here; SCAs untested in a downturn; competitor capex threatens post-2028 pricing.	MU	Neutral, rating not shown	none	2026-10-02
Seeking Alpha / Ragmar Rikberg >35% of 2030 revenue secured via SCAs with pricing bands; 5.5x 2028 P/E.	MU	Buy, upgrade	none	2026-10-02
Seeking Alpha / Julian Lin 6x earnings, $68.3B net cash, >75% of 2028 shipments committed.	MU	Buy, upgrade	none	2026-10-02
Seeking Alpha / The Asian Investor 'Potential to double' on HBM demand; 5.4x FY2028 P/E.	MU	Strong Buy, maintained	none	2026-10-02
Seeking Alpha / Capital Minded 6.8x forward; take-or-pay margin floors; cash target by Dec 2026 enables a 7-8% buyback yield.	MU	Buy	none	2026-10-02
Seeking Alpha / CYN Research Consensus assumes a sharp post-FY28 earnings decline; author thinks earnings far more durable.	MU	Bullish, rating not shown	none	2026-10-01
WSB / u/sm7196 Alphabet is the AI arms dealer: sells TPUs and compute to OpenAI/Anthropic, profits from their burn and its Anthropic stake.	GOOG, GOOGL	Long calls	$300 GOOG / $500 GOOGL strikes, Jun 2027	2026-10-02
WSB / u/yummynothing Title only.	GOOG	'All in tomorrow'	none	2026-10-02
WSB / u/Comfortable_Mud_4477 Deep ITM calls for leverage; also ORCL and META.	GOOGL	Long calls, one of four names	none	2026-10-01
WSB / u/WatercressIll8215 Asks whether MU can reach the 1,200-1,300 range.	MU	Bullish question	'1200-1300 range' asked, not stated	2026-10-02
RESOLVED: Goldman Sachs HIT by the scorer's tolerance: +14.6% realized against +25.3% implied, error 9.3%.	AMZN	Buy, $275 target set 2025-10-03	$275 vs $251.52	2026-10-02
RESOLVED: WSB u/oprah_2024 HIT by the scorer's tolerance (error 0.5%), though the close sat $5.11 under the strike; +0.9% realized against +1.4% implied.	MU	$1,080 calls expiring 10/2	$1,080 vs $1,074.89	2026-10-02
RESOLVED: WSB u/ImakeBADinvestmentsx Android-on-PC thesis; +38.8% realized over the 12 months. No target, so no hit/miss, direction only.	GOOG	Bullish, no target, 2025-10-02	none vs $340.35	2026-10-02

consensus	source	target	analysts

Cost of compute

H100 spot $2.13 against the $2.82 monthly composite. No tripwire.
H100 SXM $2.13 on Vast off 19 listings, 24% under the $2.82 composite; 24h avg $2.27, 7-day $2.57, 30-day $2.54. Third straight daily low ($2.40, $2.20, $2.13) and the 24h average has followed it down from $2.87 to $2.27, so this is no longer a one-print swing; but the 7-day column (-32%) is measured against last Saturday's $3.14 outlier and overstates it. Cheapest cloud H100 $4.17 (up from $3.85), hyperscaler $7.89, Akash $2.72 unchanged. B200 $8.13 off 15 (+4.1%), H200 $5.00 off 11 flat, A100 SXM4 $0.91 off 48 (+18.2%, cheap-chip churn). No tripwire, no capture WARNING.
No tripwire, and none is computable before ~2026-11-16: the daily series is too short for a 90-day column.
Capture health: No WARNING; intraday capture fresh at 06:07 today. SFCompute unparsed on every capture since 2026-09-25 (nine days empty).

Every rate, per chip and per source

Dollars per GPU-hour. Vast is a marketplace floor and runs well below contract rates, which is what the cloud and hyperscaler columns are there to show. Bold rows are current generation.

	vast	cloud	hyper	akash	n
H100 SXM	$2.13	$4.17	$7.89	$2.72	19
H100 NVL	$2.92	-	-	-	5 thin
H200	$5.00	$4.95	$10.85	-	11
B200	$8.13	$8.21	$14.24	-	15
A100 SXM4	$0.91	$2.00	$3.67	$1.71	48
A100 PCIE	$0.87	-	-	-	19
L40S	$0.74	-	-	-	30
RTX 4090	$0.44	-	-	-	64
RTX 5090	$0.54	-	-	-	64

H100 by source. SFCompute clearing price -. Composite is $2.82 as of 2026-04 (Still the 2026-04 H100 print at $2.82; the October re-check on 2026-10-01 found no later month published free (lock-icon paywalled), so no row was added this month. Levels below are this morning's 06:35 pull and the 3-hourly intraday captures; the midday run does not re-pull GPU spot.).

source	now	24h avg	day
vast med	$2.13	$2.27	-3.2%
sfcompute	-	-	-
getdeploying	$4.17	-	+8.3%
akash	$2.72	$2.72	+0.0%

The check itself

broken Forecasting pipeline: no record today (no weekend run by design); Friday's 12:45 run refused at pre-flight on 204 dirty paths.
ops/status.py --check exits 11 at midday, same as this morning: "latest daily record is from 2026-10-02, not 2026-10-03"; "latest daily record status is 'refused': pre-flight: 204 path(s) under data/ or dist/ already differed from HEAD"; "latest daily record has no gate_examined count: the gate did not run, or ran without reporting. This is the 171f531 shape." gate_examined: none.
broken Dec-28 340P IV not measurable on the weekend snapshot, second time today.
get_price_snapshot on the 340P returned top_status FROZEN_DELAYED with option-midpoint-iv isValid=false and implied_vol -1.0 at midday, as at 06:35. Bid/ask 52.65/55.05, last 56.67 is_close. The IV rail ran on Friday's midday value (35.65%), labelled carried.
known rails.py still prices the GOOGL programme off GOOG.
GOOG $340.05 vs GOOGL $343.25 on Friday's last prints. No verdict flips. rails.json not edited.

Rails that could not be evaluated

Dec-28 340P IV carried from Friday midday; both weekend snapshots are frozen and invalid.
No written rule covers PANW or CRWD; both were bought while net cash was red.
The long-leg repair order is a cash debit while net cash is red - the two rails conflict and no doc says which wins.
stressed_excess_liquidity has never been measured; the amber stress re-run fell due 2026-09-29 and is still undone.
MU has no written level below spot.
SFCompute H100 empty nine days running (from this morning's pull).
The 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order.
Saturday snapshots carry Friday's extended-hours last prints, a few cents off the RTH closes this morning's run used (GOOGL 343.25 vs 343.50, MU 1,069.18 vs 1,074.89); no verdict moves.

Where the numbers came from

Run label from the rails log: 2026-10-03 markets-open entry present, so this is the MIDDAY run; GPU and forecast passes skipped. Saturday, market shut since Friday 13:00 PT.
Book pulled ~19:48Z. 36 rows, same 36 contract ids and quantities as this morning; NLV $1,496,602.11, cash -$164,274.58, gross $2,575,707.41, excess liquidity $1,129,160.29, all identical to the open run. No working orders.
Prices: get_price_snapshot per ticker, every one top_status FROZEN; last = Friday's last trade including extended hours, prior_close = Thursday 10-01 close. Never estimated.
IV: Dec-28 340P snapshot FROZEN_DELAYED, isValid false on both IV fields; 35.65% carried from Friday's midday capture and flagged.
Runbook Parts 2-4 swept on Friday's last prints: every row clear.
No ticker moved 5% or more against Thursday's close on these prints (TSLA +4.89%).
GPU and forecast blocks carried from this morning's open run, labelled as such.