2026-10-01 · midday

Net cash / NLV still red at -0.110, $15,421 past the -0.10 line; no fills today. Red means Rule 3: tier 1 sales. Gross leverage 1.740x red; long-leg band still over. GOOGL $338.96 (-1.49%), nearest written level tranche 3 at $360, +6.21%. MU $1,092.38 (+2.56%), reversing the morning's post-print dip.

What to do

net cash / NLV -0.1104 (cash -$164,345.83 on NLV $1,489,246.66), $15,421 past the -0.10 red line.
SELL 200 AMZN, SELL 200 EQT, SELL 1 TSLA, SELL 1 DIS (limit near last, day)
Tier 1 in full at midday prints. Which tier-1 names is Gabriel's pick; the smallest tier-1 set that clears red is EQT 200 + TSLA 1 + DIS 1 + AMZN 21 ($15,670, lands -0.0998). AMZN 20 lands on the line, not past it. · raises ~$60,119 (AMZN $49,664, EQT $9,996, TSLA $358, DIS $101); lands net cash / NLV at -0.070
Your playbook: “"Red means: execute Rule 3 until the metric is back to amber. Choose the sales myself, at my own pace, before the broker chooses them for me." Rule 3 tier 1: AMZN, BRK.B, EQT, DIS, TSLA, UPRO.”
EQT sells at a ~$807 loss (avg $54.01, last $49.98); last EQT buy 2026-08-12, outside the 30-day window. The 100 AMZN shares bought 2026-09-25 at $248.76 now sit just under cost.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
gross_leverage	1.7404x	1.5x red (1.3x amber)	0.2404x over red
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.63x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.96x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
Standing repair (BUY TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 360P / SELL TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 280P) is $18,465.23 debit at midday marks (36.930/spread). A cash debit while net cash is red, so the two rails conflict and it is not proposed.
gross_leverage
Gross $2,591,898 on NLV $1,489,247.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-10-01: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$757,070	50.8%	1543 sh, 18 legs
MU	$176,507	11.9%	525 sh, 2 legs
VOO	$121,616	8.2%	173 sh, 0 legs
META	$104,648	7.0%	144 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$99,026	6.6%	485 sh, 2 legs
RDDT	$76,770	5.2%	513 sh, 0 legs
AMZN	$49,664	3.3%	200 sh, 0 legs
INTC	$36,096	2.4%	300 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$9,996	0.7%	200 sh, 0 legs
CRWD	$2,674	0.2%	10 sh, 0 legs
PANW	$1,979	0.1%	5 sh, 0 legs
TSLA	$358	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
HD	$282	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$101	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level) at $360, 6% away.
RDDT +5.1%, now $149.65. No written rule for it.

All 26 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level)	$338.96	≥ $360	6.2% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$338.96	≤ $317	6.5% down
MU - collar roll level	$1,092.38	≥ $1,250	14.4% up
GOOGL - thesis break, close regardless of price	$338.96	≤ $280	17.4% down
GOOGL - washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$338.96	≤ $260	23.3% down
GOOGL - Rule 8, deploy the $100k crash reserve	$338.96	≤ $260	23.3% down
GOOGL - no chase past $380-390 short	$338.96	≥ $430	26.9% up
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$338.96	≥ $434	28.0% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max, would-I-buy-it-fresh test	$338.96	≥ $500	47.5% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs	$338.96	≥ $600	77.0% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Net cash / NLV, now red	-0.110	back above -0.10 (amber)	$15,421 of sales at midday NLV.
Every long call spread against the 90%-of-width sell rule	42.23% is the highest	90% of width	Dec-28 300/400 42.23%, Sep-27 300/440 38.49%, Sep-27 300/445 37.80%, Dec-28 350/500 29.73%, Dec-28 350/600 23.89%.
Dec-28 put IV, the alternate tranche-2 trigger	36.25%	43% (Rule 8 at 50%)	6.75 points. Midpoint IV valid (implied_vol 36.11%; option quote DELAYED).
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic, the assignment watch	$56.47	$5	Put is $1.04 out of the money; the whole mark is extrinsic.
Program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 of room.
Excess liquidity against the Part 4 amber	75.66% of NLV	40% amber, 25% red	$1,126,691 against a $650,000 floor.
NLV on the week against the 72-hour freeze row	+1.05%	a FALL of 8% in one week	Struck against 2026-09-24's open, $1,473,764.97.

calendar	date	away
Earliest clean sale date for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots if only bought calls count as replacement property	2026-10-01	0d
Earliest clean sale date if a WRITTEN call is also replacement property	2026-10-15	14d
GOOG print, first scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	27d
Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash has come	2026-10-29	28d
GOOG capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	125d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	163d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put legs 10-11 (+200 sh)	2027-04-02	183d
GOOG lots vest long-term, legs 12-14 (+350 sh)	2027-06-05	247d
GOOG lots vest long-term, leg 15 (+50 sh)	2027-06-25	267d

Spot prices

	last	day
RDDT	$149.65	+5.1%
EQT	$49.98	+2.9%
MU	$1,092.38	+2.6%
NVDA	$231.79	+1.5%
CRWD	$267.35	+1.0%
TSLA	$357.56	+0.8%
VOO	$702.98	+0.3%
META	$726.72	+0.2%
INTC	$120.32	+0.1%
AMZN	$248.32	-0.3%
PANW	$395.82	-0.4%
HD	$282.36	-0.7%
GOOG	$335.85	-1.4%
GOOGL	$338.96	-1.5%
DIS	$101.37	-3.4%

What other people said

Rosenblatt / Kevin Cassidy on MU: buy, target raised, $1,900.
KeyBanc / Justin Patterson on GOOGL: buy, target cut, $435.
18 new calls filed. 6 came due and were scored.
Four MU rows (UBS $1,625, Baird $1,520, Citi $1,300, Morgan Stanley $1,200) re-dated to Oct 1 at unchanged targets were not re-filed. Seeking Alpha read in Chrome; previews only.

Every call filed today

who		action	target	when
Rosenblatt / Kevin Cassidy Raised from $1,500 after the print.	MU	Buy, target raised	$1,900	2026-10-01
KeyBanc / Justin Patterson Cut from $445.	GOOGL	Buy, target cut	$435	2026-10-01
DA Davidson / Gil Luria Raised from $2,000.	MU	Buy, target raised	$2,100	2026-10-01
Melius / Ben Reitzes Highest target filed today.	MU	Buy, reiterated	$2,200	2026-10-01
Cantor Fitzgerald / C.J. Muse	MU	Overweight, reiterated	$2,000	2026-10-01
RBC / Srini Pajjuri	MU	Outperform, reiterated	$1,500	2026-10-01
Jefferies / Brent Thill	GOOGL	Buy, maintained	$445	2026-10-01
Bank of America / Justin Post	GOOGL	Buy, maintained	$430	2026-10-01
RBC / Brad Erickson	GOOGL	Buy, maintained	$425	2026-10-01
J.P. Morgan / Doug Anmuth	GOOGL	Buy, reiterated	$420	2026-10-01
Seeking Alpha / Agar Capital Q4 $54.23B revenue, $33.42 EPS, 87% GM; Q1 guide $61.5B / $38.15; most 2027 HBM contracted.	MU	Strong Buy	none	2026-09-30
Seeking Alpha / Kenio Fontes Guide implies 6.4x annualized P/E; tightness through 2027-2028.	MU	Buy	none	2026-09-30
Seeking Alpha / Quad 7 Capital 6.6x forward FY27; buy any summer-style drawdown.	MU	Buy	none	2026-09-30
Seeking Alpha / Justin Purohit Shortage runs well past 2027; reasonably priced, continued hold.	MU	Hold	none	2026-10-01
Seeking Alpha / Tom Dorsey 26 strategic agreements cover >35% of revenue through 2030.	MU	Long, Opportunity Zone	none	2026-10-01
Seeking Alpha / APAC Research Buy despite Gemini 4 Argon benchmark doubts; cloud and TPUs monetize AI regardless.	GOOGL	Buy	none	2026-10-01
r/wallstreetbets / u/oprah_2024 YOLO on $1,080 calls expiring Friday.	MU	Calls	$1,080 strike, exp 10/02	2026-09-30
r/wallstreetbets / u/MarginCallson $50K in, doubling down into the print.	MU	Calls + shares	none	2026-09-30
SCORED: Deutsche Bank Missed by 74%; wrong direction.	INTC	Hold $30, 2025-09-29	actual $115.93	2026-09-29
SCORED: u/Loud_Pineapple_4294 (WSB) Missed; MU fell from $1,096.	MU	$1,400 in a week	actual $1,065.11	2026-09-30
SCORED: Wolfe Research Hit direction, 8.4% short of target.	AMZN	$270, 2025-09-30	actual $249.15	2026-09-30
SCORED: KeyCorp Hit direction, 9.5% short.	NVDA	$250, 2025-09-30	actual $228.38	2026-09-30
SCORED: Citigroup Hit; beat target by 8%.	NVDA	$210, 2025-09-30	actual $228.38	2026-09-30
SCORED: Jefferies Hit; beat target by 3%.	NVDA	$220, 2025-09-29	actual $227.21	2026-09-29

consensus	source	target	analysts
GOOGL	finviz.com	$426.50	Recom 1.25	Unchanged.
MU	finviz.com	$1,597.56	Recom 1.28	Up from $1,580.88 after the print.

Cost of compute

H100 spot $2.40 against the $2.82 monthly composite. No tripwire.
H100 SXM $2.40 on Vast off 24 listings, 15% under the $2.82 composite; 24h avg $2.87, 7-day $2.86, 30-day $2.56. Third straight day of a 20-30% swing in the median (-27%, +29%, -20%) while the 24h average holds near $2.90, so read it as book churn, not trend. Cheapest cloud H100 $3.85 (back down from $5.00, flat on the week), hyperscaler $7.89, Akash $2.72. B200 $7.97 off 14 listings; H200 $5.00 off 11. No tripwire, no capture WARNING.
No tripwire, and none is computable before ~2026-11-16: the daily series is too short for a 90-day column.
Capture health: No WARNING. SFCompute unparsed on every capture since 2026-09-25 (seven days empty).

Every rate, per chip and per source

Dollars per GPU-hour. Vast is a marketplace floor and runs well below contract rates, which is what the cloud and hyperscaler columns are there to show. Bold rows are current generation.

	vast	cloud	hyper	akash	n
H100 SXM	$2.40	$3.85	$7.89	$2.72	24
H100 NVL	$3.03	-	-	-	5 thin
H200	$5.00	$4.50	$10.85	$4.45	11
B200	$7.97	$7.88	$14.24	-	14
A100 SXM4	$0.80	$2.00	$3.67	$1.71	49
A100 PCIE	$0.66	-	-	-	29
L40S	$0.77	-	-	-	32
RTX 4090	$0.43	-	-	-	64
RTX 5090	$0.54	-	-	-	64

H100 by source. SFCompute clearing price -. Composite is $2.82 as of 2026-04 (Still the 2026-04 H100 print at $2.82; re-checked 2026-10-01 for the October append and no later month is published free (later months lock-icon paywalled), so no row was added.).

source	now	24h avg	day
vast med	$2.40	$2.87	-20.3%
sfcompute	-	-	-
getdeploying	$3.85	-	-23.0%
akash	$2.72	$2.72	+0.0%

The check itself

broken Forecasting pipeline refused again at today's 12:45 run; no record since 2026-09-25 carries a gate_examined count.
ops/status.py --check exits 12: "latest daily record status is 'refused': pre-flight: 187 path(s) under data/ or dist/ already differed from HEAD" and "latest daily record has no gate_examined count: the gate did not run, or ran without reporting. This is the 171f531 shape." gate_examined: none.
known rails.py still prices the GOOGL programme off GOOG.
GOOG $335.85 vs GOOGL $338.96 at midday. No verdict flips. rails.json not edited.

Rails that could not be evaluated

No written rule covers PANW or CRWD; both were bought while net cash was red.
The long-leg repair order is a cash debit while net cash is red - the two rails conflict and no doc says which wins.
stressed_excess_liquidity has never been measured; the amber stress re-run fell due 2026-09-29 and is still undone.
MU has no written level below spot, and it has now printed.
SFCompute H100 empty seven days running.
The 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order.

Where the numbers came from

Run label from the rails log: 2026-10-01 markets-open entry present, so this is the MIDDAY run; GPU and forecast passes skipped. Thursday, market open.
Book pulled ~19:47Z. 36 rows, cash -$164,345.83 (unchanged since open). No working orders.
Prices: REALTIME get_price_snapshot last; prior close carried from the open-run capture (Wednesday 09-30 close), equal to last minus the snapshot's change on every ticker.
IV: Dec-28 340P option-midpoint-iv 36.25% valid (DELAYED quote); implied_vol 36.11%; bid/ask 55.50/57.00.
Runbook Parts 2-4 swept: every row clear.
RDDT +5.06% is a move with no written rule: named, no proposal.