2026-09-26 · open

Net cash / NLV is still red at -0.107, $10,910 past the -0.10 line, and two new GTC buy orders went in this morning (5 PANW at $376, 10 CRWD at $252.80, $4,408) while the IPS amber rule says no new leverage. Red means Rule 3: tier 1 sales (AMZN, EQT, DIS, TSLA) until back in amber. Gross leverage 1.758x red; long-leg band still over. Market shut; marks are Friday's close. GOOGL $343.92, nearest written level tranche 3 at $360, +4.68%.

What to do

net cash / NLV -0.1073 (cash -$160,326.74 on NLV $1,494,170.47), $10,910 past the -0.10 red line.
SELL 200 AMZN, SELL 200 EQT, SELL 1 TSLA, SELL 1 DIS (limit near last, day, Monday 09-28)
Tier 1 in full at Friday closes. Which tier-1 names is Gabriel's pick; the smallest tier-1 set that clears red is EQT 200 + TSLA 1 + DIS 1 + AMZN 2 ($11,140, lands -0.0998). One AMZN share is not enough: it lands -0.10001. · raises ~$60,574 (AMZN $49,934, EQT $10,162, TSLA $372, DIS $106); lands net cash / NLV at -0.067
Your playbook: “"Red means: execute Rule 3 until the metric is back to amber. Choose the sales myself, at my own pace, before the broker chooses them for me." Rule 3 tier 1: AMZN, BRK.B, EQT, DIS, TSLA, UPRO.”
EQT sells at a ~$641 loss; last EQT buy 2026-08-12, outside the 30-day window. Market shut until Monday.
two GTC buy limits placed 2026-09-26 13:42-13:43Z: BUY 5 PANW @ $376.00, BUY 10 CRWD @ $252.80, $4,408 of new debit if filled.
No order proposed: book and rule disagree.
The two GTC buys would add $4,408 of margin debit while net cash is red. Neither PANW nor CRWD has a written rule. Gabriel decides which one is wrong. · on fill, net cash / NLV goes -0.1073 -> -0.1102 and the tier-1 sale needed to reach amber grows to ~$15,318
Your playbook: “"Amber means: no new leverage, no new delta in the top two names." Net cash is past amber into red.”
Both orders PENDING_NEW, GTC, placed on a shut market.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
gross_leverage	1.7575x	1.5x red (1.3x amber)	0.2575x over red
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.61x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.95x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
Standing repair (BUY TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 360P / SELL TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 280P) is $18,212.50 debit at Friday marks (36.4250/spread). A cash debit while net cash is red, so the two rails conflict and it is not proposed.
gross_leverage
Gross $2,626,011 on NLV $1,494,170. Nothing traded since Friday's midday read (1.7544x); marks only.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-26: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$755,795	50.6%	1543 sh, 18 legs
MU	$162,998	10.9%	525 sh, 2 legs
VOO	$122,967	8.2%	173 sh, 0 legs
META	$108,239	7.2%	144 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$96,522	6.5%	485 sh, 2 legs
RDDT	$76,868	5.1%	513 sh, 0 legs
AMZN	$49,934	3.3%	200 sh, 0 legs
INTC	$36,900	2.5%	300 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$10,162	0.7%	200 sh, 0 legs
TSLA	$372	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
HD	$293	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$106	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level) at $360, 5% away.

All 27 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level)	$343.92	≥ $360	4.7% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$343.92	≤ $317	7.8% down
MU - collar roll level	$1,082.28	≥ $1,250	15.5% up
GOOGL - thesis break, close regardless of price	$343.92	≤ $280	18.6% down
GOOGL - washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$343.92	≤ $260	24.4% down
GOOGL - Rule 8, deploy the $100k crash reserve	$343.92	≤ $260	24.4% down
GOOGL - no chase past $380-390 short	$343.92	≥ $430	25.0% up
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$343.92	≥ $434	26.2% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max, would-I-buy-it-fresh test	$343.92	≥ $500	45.4% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs	$343.92	≥ $600	74.5% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Net cash / NLV, now red	-0.107	back above -0.10 (amber)	$10,910 of sales at Friday's NLV; $15,318 if the PANW and CRWD orders fill.
Every long call spread against the 90%-of-width sell rule	42.70% is the highest	90% of width	Dec-28 300/400 42.70%, Sep-27 300/440 39.81%, Sep-27 300/445 39.19%, Dec-28 350/500 30.15%, Dec-28 350/600 24.48%.
Dec-28 put IV, the alternate tranche-2 trigger	36.13%	43% (Rule 8 at 50%)	6.87 points. Midpoint IV invalid on the frozen book; implied_vol used.
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic, the assignment watch	$54.93	$5	Put is $3.92 out of the money; the whole mark is extrinsic.
Program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 of room.
Excess liquidity against the Part 4 amber	75.68% of NLV	40% amber, 25% red	$1,130,715 against a $650,000 floor.
NLV on the week against the 72-hour freeze row	+0.76%	a FALL of 8% in one week	Struck against 2026-09-19's open, $1,482,973.27.

calendar	date	away
MU fiscal Q4 print, after the close	2026-09-30	4d
Earliest clean sale date for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots if only bought calls count as replacement property	2026-10-01	5d
Earliest clean sale date if a WRITTEN call is also replacement property	2026-10-15	19d
GOOG print, first scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	32d
Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash has come	2026-10-29	33d
GOOG capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	130d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	168d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put legs 10-11 (+200 sh)	2027-04-02	188d
GOOG lots vest long-term, legs 12-14 (+350 sh)	2027-06-05	252d
GOOG lots vest long-term, leg 15 (+50 sh)	2027-06-25	272d

Spot prices

	last	day
GOOG	$341.08	+0.6%
DIS	$106.15	+0.6%
VOO	$710.79	+0.5%
GOOGL	$343.92	+0.5%
HD	$293.20	+0.3%
NVDA	$225.07	+0.2%
MU	$1,082.28	+0.2%
AMZN	$249.67	+0.1%
TSLA	$372.11	-1.5%
RDDT	$149.84	-1.9%
EQT	$50.81	-2.0%
META	$751.66	-3.3%
INTC	$123.00	-3.4%

What other people said

r/wallstreetbets / u/Itsallaboutmargin on MU: bullish 1100/1200 call spread into the print, $1,200.
1 new calls filed, none came due to score.

Every call filed today

who		action	target	when
r/wallstreetbets / u/Itsallaboutmargin "MU earning play." Caption: "Its spread 1100/1200. Hope this print!"	MU	Bullish 1100/1200 call spread into the print	$1,200	2026-09-26

consensus	source	target	analysts
GOOGL	stockanalysis.com	$429.46	61 analysts	Up from $428.41.
GOOGL	marketbeat.com	$425.50	54 analysts	Up from $422.16.
GOOGL	finviz.com	$426.58	Recom 1.25	Target unchanged.
MU	stockanalysis.com	$1,515.00	49 analysts	Unchanged.
MU	marketbeat.com	$1,341.87	45 analysts	Unchanged from 09-25.
MU	finviz.com	$1,575.88	Recom 1.26	Unchanged.

Cost of compute

H100 spot $3.14 against the $2.82 monthly composite. No tripwire.
H100 SXM $3.14 on Vast off 23 listings, 11% above the $2.82 composite; 24h avg $3.06, 7-day $2.95, 30-day $2.46. Contract rates flat: getdeploying cloud $3.88, hyperscaler $7.89, Akash $2.72. H200 $4.69 on 17. B200 $9.38 on 9 listings (thin, +8.8% is one machine). A100 SXM4 $0.80 on 40, back to its 90-day average.
No tripwire, and none is computable before ~2026-11-16: the daily series is too short for a 90-day column.
Capture health: No WARNING. Today's 00:07, 03:07 and 06:07 intraday captures all landed with prices. SFCompute unparsed on every capture since 2026-09-25 (two days empty).

Every rate, per chip and per source

Dollars per GPU-hour. Vast is a marketplace floor and runs well below contract rates, which is what the cloud and hyperscaler columns are there to show. Bold rows are current generation.

	vast	cloud	hyper	akash	n
H100 SXM	$3.14	$3.88	$7.89	$2.72	23
H100 NVL	$3.02	-	-	-	3 thin
H200	$4.69	$4.50	$10.62	$4.45	17
B200	$9.38	$7.88	$15.26	-	9 thin
A100 SXM4	$0.80	$2.00	$3.67	$1.46	40
A100 PCIE	$0.89	-	-	-	26
L40S	$0.80	-	-	-	24
RTX 4090	$0.47	-	-	-	64
RTX 5090	$0.56	-	-	-	64

H100 by source. SFCompute clearing price -. Composite is $2.82 as of 2026-04 (Still the 2026-04 H100 print at $2.82, the last free figure on gpu-index.semianalysis.com; later months paywalled (re-checked 2026-09-03). Next monthly append due on the first October open run.).

source	now	24h avg	day
vast med	$3.14	$3.06	-1.9%
sfcompute	-	-	-
getdeploying	$3.88	-	+0.0%
akash	$2.72	$2.72	+0.0%

The check itself

broken Forecasting pipeline still blocked at pre-flight; the gate has not run since Thursday.
ops/status.py --check exits 11: "latest daily record is from 2026-09-25, not 2026-09-26" (the job runs weekdays only), "latest daily record status is 'refused': pre-flight: 186 path(s) under data/ or dist/ already differed from HEAD" and "latest daily record has no gate_examined count". gate_examined: none. git status now shows 216 entries (194 Friday).
known rails.py still prices the GOOGL programme off GOOG.
GOOG $341.08 vs GOOGL $343.92 at Friday's close. No verdict flips. rails.json not edited.

Rails that could not be evaluated

No written rule covers PANW or CRWD, and none says whether working orders count against the amber no-new-leverage rule.
The long-leg repair order is a cash debit while net cash is red - the two rails conflict and no doc says which wins.
stressed_excess_liquidity has never been measured; the amber stress re-run is due by 2026-09-29.
MU has no written level below spot, four days before its print.
SFCompute H100 empty two days running.
The 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order.

Where the numbers came from

Run label from the rails log: no 2026-09-26 entry, so this is the OPEN run; GPU and forecast passes ran. Saturday, market shut.
Book pulled ~13:47Z. 34 rows, cash -$160,326.74, identical to Friday midday. No fills since 2026-09-25 13:57Z. get_account_orders: two new GTC buys (PANW, CRWD) placed 13:42-13:43Z today.
Prices: get_price_history ONE_DAY RTH bars, last = Fri 09-25 close, prior = Thu 09-24 close. Snapshots skipped for stocks because a shut market returns after-hours prints.
IV: Dec-28 340P option-midpoint-iv invalid (annualIv -15.87, isValid false, FROZEN_DELAYED); implied_vol annual_iv 0.36131 used; bid/ask 53.40/57.00.
Runbook Parts 2-4 swept from Friday's marks: every row clear.
Seeking Alpha checked in Chrome on the main thread: nothing new for GOOGL or MU.