2026-09-25 · midday

Net cash / NLV went red this morning: -0.107 against the -0.10 line, $10,734 past it. It crossed when 50 VOO and 100 AMZN were bought at the open ($60,354 of new debit) while the amber rule said no new leverage. IPS red means Rule 3: sell tier 1 first (AMZN, EQT, DIS, TSLA hold $60,783) until the ratio is back to amber. Gross leverage is 1.754x red and the long-leg band is still over; the long-leg repair debit now pushes net cash deeper red, so it is not proposed. GOOGL $344.23; nearest written level tranche 3 at $360, +4.58%.

What to do

net cash / NLV -0.107, past the -0.10 red line by $10,734.
SELL 200 AMZN, SELL 200 EQT, SELL 1 TSLA, SELL 1 DIS
tier 1 in full, limit near last, day. Which tier-1 names to sell is Gabriel's pick; the smallest tier-1 set that clears red at these marks is EQT 200 + TSLA 1 + DIS 1 + AMZN 1 ($10,908, lands -0.0999, $173 inside the line). · raises ~$60,783 (AMZN $50,126, EQT $10,179, TSLA $372, DIS $106); lands net cash / NLV at -0.067
Your playbook: “"Red means: execute Rule 3 until the metric is back to amber. Choose the sales myself, at my own pace, before the broker chooses them for me." Rule 3: "Sell in this order, and never out of order" - tier 1 AMZN, BRK.B, EQT, DIS, TSLA, UPRO.”
EQT sells at a ~$624 loss; the last EQT buy was 2026-08-12, outside the 30-day window, so no wash sale unless EQT is bought back within 30 days. 100 of the 200 AMZN were bought today at $248.76.

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
Standing repair order (BUY TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 360P / SELL TO CLOSE 5 Dec-28 280P) is $18,150.41 debit at these marks (36.3008/spread). It is a cash debit while net cash is red, so the two rails conflict and it is not proposed.
gross_leverage
1.7187x at this morning's open; today's VOO and AMZN buys added $60,354 of gross.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-25: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level) at $360, 5% away.

All 27 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level)	$344.23	≥ $360	4.6% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$344.23	≤ $317	7.9% down
MU - collar roll level	$1,082.98	≥ $1,250	15.4% up
GOOGL - thesis break, close regardless of price	$344.23	≤ $280	18.7% down
GOOGL - washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$344.23	≤ $260	24.5% down
GOOGL - Rule 8, deploy the $100k crash reserve	$344.23	≤ $260	24.5% down
GOOGL - no chase past $380-390 short	$344.23	≥ $430	24.9% up
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$344.23	≥ $434	26.1% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max, would-I-buy-it-fresh test	$344.23	≥ $500	45.2% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs	$344.23	≥ $600	74.3% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Net cash / NLV, now red	-0.107	back above -0.10 (amber)	$10,734 of sales, at today's NLV.
Every long call spread against the 90%-of-width sell rule	42.73% is the highest	90% of width	Dec-28 300/400 42.73%, Sep-27 300/440 40.08%, Sep-27 300/445 39.45%, Dec-28 350/500 30.31%, Dec-28 350/600 24.50%.
Dec-28 put IV, the alternate tranche-2 trigger	36.03%	43% (Rule 8 at 50%)	6.97 points. The IV print is identical to the open run's to 16 digits; the snapshot may be cached.
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic, the assignment watch	$54.68	$5	Put is $4.23 out of the money; the whole mark is extrinsic.
Program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 of room.
Excess liquidity against the Part 4 amber	75.61% of NLV	40% amber, 25% red	$1,131,122 against a $650,000 floor.
NLV on the week against the 72-hour freeze row	+0.85%	a FALL of 8% in one week	Struck against 2026-09-18's midday, $1,483,343.98.

calendar	date	away
MU fiscal Q4 print, after the close	2026-09-30	5d
Earliest clean sale date for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots if only bought calls count as replacement property	2026-10-01	6d
Earliest clean sale date if a WRITTEN call is also replacement property	2026-10-15	20d
GOOG print, first scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	33d
Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash has come	2026-10-29	34d
GOOG capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	131d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	169d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put legs 10-11 (+200 sh)	2027-04-02	189d
GOOG lots vest long-term, legs 12-14 (+350 sh)	2027-06-05	253d
GOOG lots vest long-term, leg 15 (+50 sh)	2027-06-25	273d

Spot prices

broken Today's forecasting pipeline run refused at pre-flight; the gate never ran.
ops/status.py --check exits 12: "latest daily record status is 'refused': pre-flight: 186 path(s) under data/ or dist/ already differed from HEAD" and "latest daily record has no gate_examined count". gate_examined: none. The 09-24 run's regenerated files (incl. the META fundamentals_model.json loss) are still uncommitted; git status shows 194 entries.
known rails.py still prices the GOOGL programme off GOOG.
GOOG $341.41 vs GOOGL $344.23 at midday. No verdict flips. rails.json not edited.

Rails that could not be evaluated

The IPS says what red means (Rule 3) but not how far back into amber to sell; the smallest tier-1 set clears the line by $173.
stressed_excess_liquidity has never been measured; the amber stress re-run is due by 2026-09-29.
The long-leg repair order is a cash debit while net cash is red - the two rails conflict and no doc says which wins.
The 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order.
MU has no written level below spot, five days before its print.
NVDA (485 sh) and HD have no written rule.

Where the numbers came from

Run label from the rails log: 2026-09-25 markets-open entry present, so this is the MIDDAY run; GPU and forecast passes skipped.
Book pulled ~19:47Z. 34 rows. get_account_trades shows two fills today: BUY 50 VOO @ $709.56 (13:57Z) and BUY 100 AMZN @ $248.76 (13:54Z), both after the open run's book pull. Cash -$160,326.74.
All 13 equity snapshots REALTIME, is_close false. prior-close empty on 10 of 13; prior close = last minus change from the same payload.
IV: Dec-28 340P option-midpoint-iv annualIv 0.36031, isValid true, same value as the open run; option bid/ask 54.65/55.20.
Runbook Parts 2-4 swept from this run's marks: every row clear.
IPS Rule 1 red row and Rule 3 queue read from investing/investment-policy-statement.md.