2026-09-24 · midday

GOOGL is up 1.25% to $342.06 at midday and NLV has risen $19,476 since the open to $1,493,241. No trades since Tuesday, so the same three rails are over: gross leverage 1.718x red, net cash amber at -0.067, and 13 long puts above the $260 band. Nothing on the runbook fired; the nearest written level is tranche 3 at $360, 5.24% above. The forecasting pipeline ran in full for the first time since Monday and the coverage gate refused the commit on one real loss: META's fundamentals model lost its core-EPS backfill.

What to do

13 long puts sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling: 280P x5 and 300P x8.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one combo x5, limit near mid, day · ~$18,390.47 debit ($36.7809 net per spread at this run's marks)
Your playbook: “"long leg never above $260 (must sit at/above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230 where protection stops paying before history bottoms)"”
Same standing order, $340 cheaper than this morning's $18,730.34 as GOOGL rose. It fixes the 280P x5 only; the 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order. Net cash is amber and the IPS amber rule bars new leverage; this order is a cash debit, so the two rails pull against each other. Stated, not resolved.

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
No campaign leg has traded.
gross_leverage
Down from 1.7225x at the open with no fills: gross $2,566,026.55, NLV $1,493,241.17. NLV rose faster than gross.
net_cash_ratio
Cash -$99,970.74, unchanged since Tuesday; the ratio eased only because NLV rose. IPS amber: no new leverage, no new top-2 delta, stress re-run within 7 days. No order proposed.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-24: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level) at $360, 5% away.

All 27 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level)	$342.06	≥ $360	5.2% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$342.06	≤ $317	7.3% down
MU - collar roll level	$1,076.86	≥ $1,250	16.1% up
GOOGL - thesis break, close regardless of price	$342.06	≤ $280	18.1% down
GOOGL - washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$342.06	≤ $260	24.0% down
GOOGL - Rule 8, deploy the $100k crash reserve	$342.06	≤ $260	24.0% down
GOOGL - no chase past $380-390 short	$342.06	≥ $430	25.7% up
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$342.06	≥ $434	26.9% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max, would-I-buy-it-fresh test	$342.06	≥ $500	46.2% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs	$342.06	≥ $600	75.4% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Net cash / NLV, now amber	-0.0669	-0.10 red	$49,353 of further cash drawdown, or an NLV fall with cash unchanged.
Every long call spread against the 90%-of-width sell rule	42.38% is the highest	90% of width	Dec-28 300/400 42.38%, Sep-27 300/440 39.34%, Sep-27 300/445 38.74%, Dec-28 350/500 30.04%, Dec-28 350/600 24.37%.
Dec-28 put IV, the alternate tranche-2 trigger	36.20%	43% (Rule 8 at 50%)	6.80 points. option-midpoint-iv isValid true.
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic, the assignment watch	$55.53	$5	Put is $2.06 out of the money, so the whole $55.53 mark is extrinsic.
Program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 of room.
Excess liquidity against the Part 4 amber	75.82% of NLV	40% amber, 25% red	$1,132,188 against a $650,000 floor.
NLV on the week against the 72-hour freeze row	+1.69%	a FALL of 8% in one week	Struck against 2026-09-17's midday, $1,468,352.66.

calendar	date	away
MU fiscal Q4 print, after the close	2026-09-30	6d
Earliest clean sale date for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots if only bought calls count as replacement property	2026-10-01	7d
Earliest clean sale date if a WRITTEN call is also replacement property	2026-10-15	21d
GOOG print, first scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	34d
Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash has come	2026-10-29	35d
GOOG capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	132d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	170d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put legs 10-11 (+200 sh)	2027-04-02	190d
GOOG lots vest long-term, legs 12-14 (+350 sh)	2027-06-05	254d
GOOG lots vest long-term, leg 15 (+50 sh)	2027-06-25	274d

Spot prices

broken The forecasting pipeline ran in full and the coverage gate refused the commit.
ops/status.py --check exits 12. Today's 12:45 run: 124 steps, 31 failed, gate_candidates 181, gate_examined 43, gate_skipped 138, gate_losses 1, committed false (254.6s). COMMIT_REFUSED-2026-09-24.md: LOSS data/tickers/META/fundamentals_model.json - income.earnings_basis.bases length 2 -> 1, pe_history.sources keys removed: eps_core_backfill. The gate examined a real non-zero set, so its verdict means something. The failed steps include BRK-B (street, scorecard, sync_positions, book_ev), a name not in the book. 181 regenerated paths now sit uncommitted in ~/code/financials, so tomorrow's 12:45 run will refuse at pre-flight unless they are committed or discarded.
known rails.py still prices the GOOGL programme off GOOG.
GOOG $338.11 vs GOOGL $342.06 at midday. No verdict flips. rails.json not edited.

Rails that could not be evaluated

stressed_excess_liquidity has never been measured, and the IPS amber rule asks for a stress re-run within 7 days of 2026-09-22, which is 2026-09-29.
The 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order; the standing order fixes 5 of 13 offending contracts.
MU has no written level below spot, six days before its print.
NVDA (485 sh) and HD have no written rule; HD is absent from even the unruled-ticker list.
The long-leg repair order is a cash debit while net cash is amber - the two rails conflict and no doc says which wins.

Where the numbers came from

Run label from the rails log: a 2026-09-24 markets-open entry exists, so this is the MIDDAY run; GPU and forecast passes skipped by rule.
Book pulled ~19:47Z. 34 rows. get_account_trades DAYS_7: no fill since 2026-09-22T14:01:22Z; cash -$99,970.74 unchanged.
All 13 equity snapshots REALTIME, is_close false. prior-close empty on 12 of 13; prior close = last minus change (HD's returned $296.72 matches).
IV: Dec-28 340P option-midpoint-iv annualIv 0.36197, isValid true.
Runbook Parts 2-4 swept from this run's marks: every row clear. Wash-sale precondition unchanged (no trades); clean 2026-10-01, or 2026-10-15 if a written call counts.
Pipeline read after the 12:45 job finished at 12:49 PDT.