2026-09-23 · midday

GOOGL is down 3.73% to $338.07 at midday, off a $350 high, and NLV has fallen $25,415 since the open to $1,477,199. No trades since yesterday, so the same three rails are over: net cash amber at -0.068, gross leverage 1.728x red, and 13 long puts above the $260 band. Nothing on the runbook fired; the nearest written level is now tranche 2 at $317, 6.23% below. The forecasting pipeline refused again at pre-flight, but on 3 MU forecast files this time, not yesterday's 197.

What to do

13 long puts sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling: 280P x5 and 300P x8.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one combo x5, limit near mid, day · ~$18,842.86 debit ($37.6857 net per spread at this run's marks)
Your playbook: “"long leg never above $260 (must sit at/above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230 where protection stops paying before history bottoms)"”
Same standing order, $906 dearer than this morning's $17,936.40 as GOOGL fell and the 360P rose. It fixes the 280P x5 only; the 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order. Net cash is amber and the IPS amber rule bars new leverage; this order is a cash debit, so the two rails pull against each other. Stated, not resolved.

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
No campaign leg has traded.
gross_leverage
Up from 1.7223x at the open with no fills: gross $2,553,274.82, NLV $1,477,199.21. NLV fell faster than gross on a down day.
net_cash_ratio
Cash -$99,970.74, unchanged since yesterday midday; the ratio moved only because NLV fell. IPS amber: no new leverage, no new top-2 delta, stress re-run within 7 days. No order proposed.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-23: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness (nearest written level) at $317, 6% away.

All 27 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness (nearest written level)	$338.07	≤ $317	6.2% down
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation	$338.07	≥ $360	6.5% up
MU - collar roll level	$1,071.11	≥ $1,250	16.7% up
GOOGL - thesis break, close regardless of price	$338.07	≤ $280	17.2% down
GOOGL - washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$338.07	≤ $260	23.1% down
GOOGL - Rule 8, deploy the $100k crash reserve	$338.07	≤ $260	23.1% down
GOOGL - no chase past $380-390 short	$338.07	≥ $430	27.2% up
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$338.07	≥ $434	28.4% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max, would-I-buy-it-fresh test	$338.07	≥ $500	47.9% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs	$338.07	≥ $600	77.5% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Net cash / NLV, now amber	-0.0677	-0.10 red	$47,749 of further cash drawdown, or NLV falling to $999,707 at today's cash.
Every long call spread against the 90%-of-width sell rule	41.93% is the highest	90% of width	Dec-28 300/400 41.93%, Sep-27 300/440 38.37%, Sep-27 300/445 37.73%, Dec-28 350/500 29.41%, Dec-28 350/600 23.83%.
Dec-28 put IV, the alternate tranche-2 trigger	36.22%	43% (Rule 8 at 50%)	6.78 points. option-midpoint-iv isValid true.
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic, the assignment watch	$55.32	$5	Put is $1.93 in the money on a $57.25 mark, so $55.32 is extrinsic.
Program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 of room.
Excess liquidity against the Part 4 amber	76.09% of NLV	40% amber, 25% red	$1,123,932 against a $650,000 floor.
NLV on the week against the 72-hour freeze row	+1.09%	a FALL of 8% in one week	Struck against 2026-09-16's open, $1,461,306.52.

calendar	date	away
MU fiscal Q4 print, after the close	2026-09-30	7d
Earliest clean sale date for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots if only bought calls count as replacement property	2026-10-01	8d
Earliest clean sale date if a WRITTEN call is also replacement property	2026-10-15	22d
GOOG print, first scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	35d
Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash has come	2026-10-29	36d
GOOG capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	133d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	171d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put legs 10-11 (+200 sh)	2027-04-02	191d
GOOG lots vest long-term, legs 12-14 (+350 sh)	2027-06-05	255d
GOOG lots vest long-term, leg 15 (+50 sh)	2027-06-25	275d

Spot prices

broken The forecasting pipeline refused today's 12:45 run at pre-flight.
ops/status.py --check exits 12: "latest daily record status is 'refused': pre-flight: 3 path(s) under data/ or dist/ already differed from HEAD"; "latest daily record has no gate_examined count". Steps run 0, gate never ran. Yesterday's 197 paths are gone; the 3 now are data/tickers/MU/forecasts/house.json and fundamentals_model.json (modified) and house/2026-09-23.json (new) - uncommitted MU forecast work, last repo commit 2d56fb90 at 10:48 today. No COMMIT_REFUSED file.
known rails.py still prices the GOOGL programme off GOOG.
GOOG $334.86 vs GOOGL $338.07. Tranche 2 reads 5.33% away on GOOG vs 6.23% on GOOGL. No verdict flips. rails.json not edited.

Rails that could not be evaluated

stressed_excess_liquidity has never been measured, and the IPS amber rule now asks for a stress re-run within 7 days of 2026-09-22.
The 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order; the standing order fixes 5 of 13 offending contracts.
MU has no written level below spot, seven days before its print.
NVDA (485 sh) and HD have no written rule; HD is absent from even the unruled-ticker list.
The long-leg repair order is a cash debit while net cash is amber - the two rails conflict and no doc says which wins.

Where the numbers came from

Run label from the rails log: a 2026-09-23 markets-open entry exists, so this is the MIDDAY run; GPU and forecast passes skipped by rule.
Book pulled ~19:47Z, 73 minutes before the close. 34 rows. get_account_trades DAYS_7: no fill since 2026-09-22T14:01:22Z; cash -$99,970.74 unchanged. Open order: GTC sell 210 RDDT @ $182.
All 13 equity snapshots REALTIME, is_close false. prior-close empty on 11 of 13; prior close = last minus change (EQT $50.81 and HD $305.35 returned and match).
IV: Dec-28 340P option-midpoint-iv annualIv 0.36215, isValid true.
Runbook Parts 2-4 swept from this run's marks: every row clear. Wash-sale precondition still fails (8x Sep-27 300C bought 2026-08-31); clean 2026-10-01, or 2026-10-15 if a written call counts.