2026-09-22 · midday

Net cash / NLV crossed its amber band: -0.066 against -0.05. Two trades after this morning's read did it - 100 more NVDA at $227.51 (a third NVDA buy in two days, $22,752 on margin) and closing the INTC collar for a $4,966 net debit - which together moved cash from -$72,253 to -$99,971, reconciled to the cent. The IPS amber rule is a restriction, not an order: no new leverage and no new delta in GOOG or MU. GOOGL gave back the tranche-3 breach and sits at $352.05, so nothing fires there today. The two structural rails remain over.

What to do

net cash / NLV -0.0659 against the -0.05 amber (red -0.10).
No order. The written rule restricts what comes next rather than prescribing a trade.
No new margin-funded buys; no new GOOG/GOOGL or MU delta; stressed excess liquidity (Risk Navigator -30% price, +50% IV) due by 2026-09-29 and has never been measured. · $0
Your playbook: “"Amber means: no new leverage, no new delta in the top two names. Re-run the stress scenario within seven days."”
Cash moved -$27,718.22 since the 06:52 read: 100 NVDA at $227.51 ($22,751 + $1.00 commission, 14:00:10Z) and the INTC Sep-27 collar closed (bought back 3x 140C for $8,391, sold 3x 87.5P for $3,429) for a $4,966.22 net debit. About $24,132 of cash would bring the ratio back to -0.05. A GTC sell of 210 RDDT at $182 is working (placed 18:20Z), $28.14 above RDDT's $153.86; it is his order, named not proposed.
13 long puts sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling: 280P x5 and 300P x8.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one combo x5, limit near mid, day · ~$17,463.97 debit ($34.9279 net per spread at this run's marks)
Your playbook: “"long leg never above $260 (must sit at/above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230 where protection stops paying before history bottoms)"”
Same standing order, $851.98 dearer than this morning's $16,611.99 because GOOGL fell. Addresses only the 280P x5; the 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
gross_leverage	1.7197x	1.5x red (1.3x amber)	0.2197x over red
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.61x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.90x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
No campaign leg traded today.
gross_leverage
Up from 1.6931x this morning, a ninth consecutive rise. Gross fell $3,993 but NLV fell $26,208 (GOOGL down, NVDA bought on margin), so the ratio rose.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-22: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$758,529	50.0%	1543 sh, 18 legs
MU	$161,300	10.6%	525 sh, 2 legs
META	$106,294	7.0%	144 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$97,729	6.4%	485 sh, 2 legs
VOO	$87,801	5.8%	123 sh, 0 legs
RDDT	$78,930	5.2%	513 sh, 0 legs
INTC	$36,984	2.4%	300 sh, 2 legs
AMZN	$25,597	1.7%	100 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$10,234	0.7%	200 sh, 0 legs
TSLA	$380	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
HD	$306	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$104	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level, back below) at $360, 2% away.

All 26 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written level, back below)	$352.05	≥ $360	2.3% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$352.05	≤ $317	10.0% down
MU - collar roll level	$1,094.07	≥ $1,250	14.2% up
GOOGL - thesis break, close regardless of price	$352.05	≤ $280	20.5% down
GOOGL - no chase, do not write strikes past $380-390 short	$352.05	≥ $430	22.1% up
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$352.05	≥ $434	23.3% up
GOOGL - washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$352.05	≤ $260	26.1% down
GOOGL - Rule 8, deploy the $100k crash reserve	$352.05	≤ $260	26.1% down
GOOGL - long spreads near max, apply the would-I-buy-it-fresh test	$352.05	≥ $500	42.0% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs, roll the GOOG collar or accept the cap	$352.05	≥ $600	70.4% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Every long call spread against the runbook's 90%-of-width sell rule	46.56% is the highest	90% of width	Dec-28 300/400 46.56%, Sep-27 300/440 45.35%, Sep-27 300/445 44.68%, Dec-28 350/500 33.82%, Dec-28 350/600 27.58%. Every one rose with the tape; nothing is close to half the distance.
Dec-28 30-delta put IV, the alternate tranche-2 trigger	36.28%	43%	6.72 points. option-midpoint-iv returned isValid TRUE and identical to 16 decimals across both snapshot rounds this run.
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic, the assignment watch	$52.47	$5	The put is $12.05 out of the money at GOOGL $352.05, so the whole $52.47 mark is extrinsic.
Program cap against the campaign's defined-loss ceiling	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 of room, 87.5% used. Unchanged - no campaign leg has traded.
Excess liquidity against the Part 4 amber	75.63% of NLV	40% amber, 25% red	$1,147,134 against a $650,000 standing floor. Both rows clear.
NLV on the week against the 72-hour freeze row	+5.01%	a FALL of 8% in one week	Struck against 2026-09-15's open of $1,444,348.52, the matching weekday. Wrong sign entirely.

calendar	date	away
MU fiscal Q4 print, after the close	2026-09-30	8d
Earliest clean sale date for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots if only bought calls count as replacement property	2026-10-01	9d
Earliest clean sale date if a WRITTEN call is also replacement property	2026-10-15	23d
GOOG print, first scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	36d
Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash has come	2026-10-29	37d
GOOG capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	134d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	172d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put legs 10-11 (+200 sh)	2027-04-02	192d
GOOG lots vest long-term, legs 12-14 (+350 sh)	2027-06-05	256d
GOOG lots vest long-term, leg 15 (+50 sh)	2027-06-25	276d

Spot prices

	last	day
MU	$1,094.07	+4.8%
HD	$305.90	+2.9%
EQT	$51.17	+2.1%
INTC	$123.28	+1.2%
TSLA	$379.62	+1.2%
NVDA	$229.27	+0.8%
VOO	$713.83	+0.1%
DIS	$104.08	-0.1%
META	$738.15	-0.4%
GOOG	$348.04	-0.8%
GOOGL	$352.05	-0.8%
AMZN	$255.97	-1.0%
RDDT	$153.86	-3.1%

The check itself

broken Today's forecasting-pipeline run was refused at pre-flight and generated nothing.
ops/status.py --check exits 12: "latest daily record status is 'refused': pre-flight: 197 path(s) under data/ or dist/ already differed from HEAD" and "latest daily record has no gate_examined count: the gate did not run". The 12:45:05 run skipped every step in 0.3s. The dirty paths are yesterday's regenerated files that the gate refused to commit (iv_INTC_book_regen.json, ibkr_whatif/2026-09-21.json and per-ticker forecasts, prices, meta and multiples across AMZN, BRK-B, DIS, EQT, GOOGL, HD, INTC, META, MU, NVDA, RDDT, TSLA). `git status` now shows 238 dirty paths. A commit landed at 11:16 today (e5a1469) without clearing them.

Rails that could not be evaluated

THIRD NVDA BUY IN TWO SESSIONS, and it is the trade that crossed the net-cash amber: 100 at $227.51, order 914222660, 14:00:10Z, placed after this morning's book pull. NVDA 285 -> 485 shares since Monday, $45,511 on margin. NVDA still has no written rule.
THE INTC COLLAR IS GONE. At 14:01:22Z order 914222733 bought back 3x INTC Sep-27 140C at $27.97 and sold 3x Sep-27 87.5P at $11.43, realized -$4,647.26. 300 INTC shares are now unhedged; no rail covered the collar and none covers the shares.
tranche 3 round trip: GOOGL printed $364.17 and is back to $352.05. rails.py still prices the GOOGL programme off GOOG (the known basis defect); today it made no difference to the verdict.
stressed_excess_liquidity has never been measured, and the amber rule now makes it due within seven days.
The SemiAnalysis composite anchor is five months stale (2026-04).

Where the numbers came from

Run label from the rails log: a 2026-09-22 markets-open entry already existed at 07:04:15, so this is the midday run; 4b and 5 skipped by rule, gpu and forecasts left empty.
Book pulled ~12:47 PDT. get_account_trades TODAY returned four fills: two NVDA buys (50 at 13:50:45Z, already in the open run; 100 at 14:00:10Z, new) and the two-leg INTC order. Cash reconciles: -$72,252.52 -> -$99,970.74 = -$27,718.22 = $22,751 + $1.00 NVDA + $8,391 - $3,429 + $4.22 INTC commissions.
All 13 equity snapshots REALTIME, is_close false. prior-close empty again; prior close = last minus change from the same payload.
IV from option-midpoint-iv on the Dec-28 340P: annualIv 0.3591, isValid true.