2026-09-16 · midday

Gabriel opened an Intel collar at 8:18 this morning - three Sep-2027 87.5/140 spreads against the 300 shares, for a $318.97 credit - and it is the first trade in the book since 09-14. It cut Intel's delta by three quarters and is the reason total delta eased. No rail covers Intel, so nothing is proposed against it. The two structural fires are unchanged, the runbook is clear on every row, and the nightly forecasting job is five minutes from refusing pre-flight for a second straight day on the same five files.

What to do

13 long puts sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling: 280P x5 and 300P x8.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one combo x5, limit near mid, day · ~$18,202.84 debit ($36.4057 net per spread at this pull's marks)
Your playbook: “"long leg never above $260 (must sit at/above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230 where protection stops paying before history bottoms)"”
The same standing order, repriced at 12:38 PDT with an hour and twenty minutes of session left. $158.14 more expensive than this morning's reading as GOOGL fell $3.34 and the 360P gained more than the 280P. Reprice at the moment it is placed. Nothing has been traded on this rail. It repairs 5 of the 13 out-of-band contracts; the 8x Dec-28 300P still has no written remedy and stays under gaps.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
gross_leverage	1.655x	amber 1.3, red 1.5	red
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.62x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.87x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
The rail the action item addresses. No leg has been traded on it.
gross_leverage
Up a hair from 1.654x at the open read. Gross position value fell $16,525.53 on the session but NLV fell $10,844.30, a larger share of a smaller base, so the ratio rose while the book shrank.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-16: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$755,945	52.1%	1543 sh, 18 legs
MU	$144,851	10.0%	525 sh, 2 legs
META	$97,034	6.7%	144 sh, 0 legs
VOO	$84,988	5.9%	123 sh, 0 legs
RDDT	$80,710	5.6%	513 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$48,949	3.4%	285 sh, 2 legs
AMZN	$24,511	1.7%	100 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$10,020	0.7%	200 sh, 0 legs
INTC	$8,370	0.6%	300 sh, 2 legs
TSLA	$357	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$106	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written price level) at $360, 5% away.
EQT -5.7%, now $50.10. No written rule for it.

All 35 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written price level)	$342.20	≥ $360	5.2% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$342.20	≤ $317	7.4% down
GOOGL - thesis break	$342.20	≤ $280	18.2% down
GOOGL - washout / Rule 8 crash deploy	$342.20	≤ $260	24.0% down
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$342.20	≥ $434	26.8% up
GOOG - Rule 6 on the GOOG basis	$338.98	≥ $434	28.0% up
MU - roll the collar up	$924.53	≥ $1,250	35.2% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max	$342.20	≥ $500	46.1% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs	$342.20	≥ $600	75.3% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 at $360 is the nearest unfired trigger on the board	342.2	close above $360 on the 50-day, 1.2x volume	5.20% above spot
Net cash / NLV	-0.037154	< -0.05 amber	$18,632 of cash, or a $373,000 fall in NLV
Gross position value / NLV	1.6546	> 1.5 red	fired; would need gross down $224,288 or NLV up $149,526 to reach the red line
Excess liquidity / NLV	0.7665	< 0.40 amber	36.7 points of headroom
Excess liquidity floor	1111754.25	< $650,000	$461,754 above the floor
Top-2 name delta / NLV	0.621	> 0.70 amber	7.9 points of headroom
Total delta notional / NLV	0.8658	> 1.30 amber	43 points of headroom; down from 0.8756 this morning, almost all of it the Intel collar
Campaign defined max loss	175059.0	> $200,000	$24,941 of room
GOOGL Dec-28 30-delta put IV	0.3526	> 0.43 tranche 2, > 0.50 Part 3 crash	7.7 points below the tranche-2 level
Dec-28 340P extrinsic (assignment watch)	55.2	< $5	mark $55.20, zero intrinsic at a $342.20 spot
Dec-28 300/400 call spread vs 90% of width	0.426	>= 0.90	47.4 points of width to go
Sep-27 300/440 call spread vs 90% of width	0.3935	>= 0.90	50.7 points of width to go
Dec-28 350/500 call spread vs 90% of width	0.2974	>= 0.90	60.3 points of width to go
NLV weekly drawdown freeze	0.0276	<= -8% in one week	NLV is up 2.76% against the 2026-09-09 midday read of $1,411,505.20

calendar	date	away
Wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots - the prior-30-day precondition already fails	2026-09-17	1d
MU fiscal Q4 print, after the close	2026-09-30	14d
Earliest clean sale date for the 6/05 loss lots if only bought calls count	2026-10-01	15d
Earliest clean sale date if a WRITTEN call is also replacement property	2026-10-15	29d
GOOG print, first scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	42d
Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash has come	2026-10-29	43d
GOOG capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	140d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	178d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put legs 10-11 (+200 sh)	2027-04-02	198d
GOOG lots vest long-term, legs 12-14 (+350 sh) - 193 of these are clock-stopped by the 09-14 collar	2027-06-05	262d
GOOG lots vest long-term, leg 15 (+50 sh) - all 50 clock-stopped by the 09-14 collar	2027-06-25	282d
Rule 6 upside window on the $434 trigger closes	2027-08-31	349d

Spot prices

	last	day
GOOG	$338.98	-0.7%
GOOGL	$342.20	-0.8%
MU	$924.53	-0.3%
AMZN	$245.11	-1.3%
DIS	$106.28	-0.1%
EQT	$50.10	-5.7%
INTC	$100.35	+3.3%
META	$673.85	+0.5%
NVDA	$213.56	+0.7%
RDDT	$157.33	-1.4%
TSLA	$357.25	+0.2%
VOO	$690.96	-0.8%

The check itself

broken The nightly forecasting job's 12:45 slot fires in five minutes and will refuse pre-flight again, on the same five files that blocked it yesterday.
Checked at 12:40 PDT, five minutes before the slot. git status under data/ still shows exactly five modified paths: data/tickers/AMZN/config.json, data/tickers/GOOGL/config.json, data/tickers/META/config.json, data/tickers/MU/config.json and data/tickers/NVDA/config.json. The pre-flight at ops/run_daily.sh:235 runs git status --porcelain scoped to data/ and dist/, so it will count five and print PRE-FLIGHT REFUSED: 5 path(s) under data/ or dist/ already differ from HEAD; skipping the whole run. Yesterday it counted six - the untracked data/shared/ingested/factor_prices/ has since gone. That will be two consecutive refusals and two consecutive days with no regenerated data. Nothing here was cleaned, committed, reverted or rerun.
broken ops/status.py is still not wired to ops/run_daily.sh, so the structured check still cannot see a run.
Re-run this midday: exit 10, no daily record in ops/status.jsonl. The file still does not exist, and grep for status.jsonl, ops.status and ops/status across ops/run_daily.sh still returns nothing. launchctl reports runs = 1, last exit code = 1, state not running. Unchanged from this morning and named again because it is the check's own blind spot, not a finding about the data.
open gate_examined has still never been a number.
The gate has still examined zero files, because the one run the job has ever had refused before any step executed. If today's 12:45 slot refuses as predicted, that stays true for a second day.
structural Neither market-check slot can ever observe a completed same-day pipeline run.
The job fires at 12:45 Mon-Fri; this check runs at 06:35 and 12:35. Today's midday read is ten minutes before the job, not after it, so question 1 answers 'no' by construction here too. Unchanged and still a scheduling decision for Gabriel.
note The connector's prior_close field came back empty on all 12 equities again, and the derivation cross-checks perfectly.
Every prior close is derived as last minus the broker's own change field. All twelve derived figures match this morning's run to the cent - GOOGL 344.98, GOOG 341.43, MU 927.60, AMZN 248.42, DIS 106.42, EQT 53.12, INTC 97.14, META 670.24, NVDA 212.17, RDDT 159.63, TSLA 356.58, VOO 696.20. No price was estimated.
note The cash move ties to the fill to the cent.
Cash went from -54,209.98 to -53,891.01, a change of +318.97. The INTC combo filled 3 spreads at 16.13 credit against 15.06 debit, $321.00 gross, less $2.033054 of commission across the six legs, which is $318.97. Nothing else moved cash today.
note 15 connector calls, zero retries; all 12 equities REALTIME, the IV contract DELAYED.
Positions, summary, orders, trades, one contract search, 12 equity snapshots and one option snapshot. The Dec-28 340P's option-midpoint-iv annualIv of 0.352583 was used with implied_vol annual_iv 0.355443 as the cross-check, both isValid true.

Rails that could not be evaluated

INTC has no written rule, so the collar Gabriel opened this morning is recorded and nothing is proposed against it - not its strikes, not its size, not whether it should exist. That is the correct outcome under the rails as written, and it is also the second appreciated-share collar in three days that no rail can see.
The INTC collar is a collar on shares carrying a $19,651 unrealized gain at an average cost of $34.42 against a $100.35 spot. The 09-14 GOOG collar got a holding-period treatment in the runbook under Reg 1.1092(b)-2T; nothing in investing/tax-rules or the runbook says anything about INTC, so whether the same clock-stopping applies here is unanswered. Flagged, not answered, and no doc was edited.
The five modified data/tickers/*/config.json files in ~/code/financials are someone's uncommitted work and will block the 12:45 pipeline run in five minutes exactly as they blocked yesterday's. They were reported and not touched.
ops/status.py reads a file that nothing writes. Until run_daily.sh appends to ops/status.jsonl, section 4a's structured route answers 'has not run' regardless of what happened.
stressed_excess_liquidity has still never been measured - it needs Risk Navigator at -30% price and +50% IV with the TWS gateway up.
The 8x Dec-28 300P has no written repair order. The band rail fires on 13 contracts and the standing order addresses 5 of them.
No rail covers short calls against shares held. 45 short GOOG/GOOGL calls against 29 long is 16 net short, 1,600 shares against 1,543 held, so 57 shares of the 09-14 collar stand behind nothing. The 3 new INTC short calls are fully covered by the 300 shares, so they do not add to this. Unchanged.
Three Sep-2027 GOOGL legs and now two Sep-2027 INTC legs are invisible to every rail - rails.json carries exactly one program, the Dec-2028 put campaign.
investing/tax-rules still does not say whether a WRITTEN call is replacement property. The wash-sale calendar row opens tomorrow and its precondition fails either way, so nothing turns on it today.
rails.json still lists short_dec28_340p_extrinsic as needing a live Dec-2028 chain pull when the position row's own mark answers it at $55.20. The file was not edited to match the book.
MU has no written price level anywhere below spot. Its only runbook price trigger is the $1,250 roll-up, 35.20% above. The book's largest single position can fall any distance without a rail firing.
EQT is down 5.69% and has no written rule, so its move is named and nothing follows from it. It is a $10,020 position, the second-smallest in the book that is not a single share.
markets.dottl.xyz still has no Cloudflare Access policy in front of it - the deploy script reported 'Access: off (public)' again today and a fresh curl of the site root returns 200 with no challenge. The full book, NLV, cash and every strike and quantity are readable by anyone with the URL. Reported since 09-06 and still not changed unilaterally, because gating it is a decision about who you want to be able to open the link.

Where the numbers came from

Run label decided from the rails log, not the clock: the 2026-09-16 entry in investing/checks/rails-log.jsonl already reads markets-open, so this is the midday run. Sections 4b (GPU) and 5 (forecasts) were skipped by that rule, not by failure.
Book pulled 19:38Z / 12:38 PDT, one hour and twenty-two minutes before the close. 35 rows against this morning's 33.
Two new rows, both INTC Sep17'27 legs. get_account_trades for TODAY returns six fills, all under one combo order id 850776519, all stamped 15:18:16Z / 08:18 PDT: BUY 3x 87.5 PUT at 15.06 and SELL 3x 140 CALL at 16.13, across SAPPHIRE and EMERALD. No live orders. No other quantity changed anywhere in the book.
positions.json, summary.json and quotes.json copied to .prev.json as the first writes of the run.
Every prior close derived as last minus the broker's change field and cross-checked against this morning's independently-derived set; all twelve match to the cent.
IV from option-midpoint-iv on the Dec-28 340P, the campaign's written IV contract.
Weekly NLV comparison struck against the 2026-09-09 midday read of $1,411,505.20, the midday run one week back in this log, rather than the open run this morning used.
Runbook Parts 2, 3 and 4 swept row by row against this run's own marks. Every call-spread percentage recomputed from the position rows' current marks, not carried forward.
Section 4a was read-only throughout: nothing in ~/code/financials was edited, committed, reverted, rerun or reloaded.