2026-09-15 · midday

The rail that cleared by $7.45 this morning is now over the line. Net cash / NLV reads -0.050392 against a -0.05 amber, and not one dollar of cash moved: cash is -$72,209.98, the same to the cent as the open and as yesterday. Net liquidation fell $11,375.93 to $1,432,972.59 on a broad down tape, which pulled the amber line up to -$71,648.63, and the rail crossed it by $561.35. This is the arithmetic the 06:38 run said would trip it, and it needs $11,227 of NLV back, or $561 less margin debt, to read clear again. Three rails fire: that one, 13 long puts above the $260 band, and gross leverage 1.678x red - itself eased from 1.683x. Every runbook row is clear, no ticker moved 5%, and the forecasting pipeline now has working code and still has never run: its first real slot is 12:45 today, five minutes after this check reads the answer.

What to do

net cash / NLV -0.050392 against the -0.05 amber floor: cash -$72,209.98 vs an amber line of -$71,648.63, $561.35 over.
No order. The IPS names the rail and its amber level; it does not name a THEN for an amber breach of this rail.
Amber is a state, not an instruction, in the doc as written. · $561.35 of margin debt paid down clears it, as does $11,227.01 of NLV recovery
Your playbook: “"net cash / NLV, floor, amber -0.05, red -0.1"”
This fired on price, not on any action. Cash is identical to the cent at yesterday's close, this morning's open and now; the whole move is the denominator. The 06:38 run recorded the headroom as $7.45 and said a $149 fall in NLV would trip it - NLV fell $11,375.93. It will read clear again on any green tape without a dollar changing hands, which is the point under gaps.
13 long puts sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling: 280P x5 and 300P x8.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one combo x5, limit near mid, day · ~$18,187.16 debit ($36.3743 net per spread at this pull's marks)
Your playbook: “"long leg never above $260 (must sit at/above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230 where protection stops paying before history bottoms)"”
The same standing order, repriced an hour before the close. $206.80 more than the 06:38 reading of $17,980.36, because GOOGL fell another $3.62 through the session and the 360P gained more than the 280P. These are 12:38 PDT marks, not a fill - reprice at the moment it is placed. Nothing has been traded on this rail. It repairs 5 of the 13 out-of-band contracts; the 8x Dec-28 300P still has no written remedy and stays under gaps.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
gross_leverage	1.678x	amber 1.3x, red 1.5x	red
net_cash_ratio	-0.050392	amber -0.05, red -0.1	amber, by $561.35 of cash
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.63x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.89x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
The rail the repair order addresses. No leg has been traded on it.
gross_leverage
1.57x when the policy was signed. Gross position value fell $26,883.78 to $2,403,927.64 against an $11,375.93 fall in net liquidation, so the ratio eased from 1.683x at the open. This rail counts both legs of every spread.
net_cash_ratio
-0.148 when the policy was signed. Red is a long way off: it would take cash of -$143,297 on today's NLV.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-15: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$754,622	52.7%	1543 sh, 18 legs
MU	$142,055	9.9%	525 sh, 2 legs
META	$96,456	6.7%	144 sh, 0 legs
VOO	$85,564	6.0%	123 sh, 0 legs
RDDT	$81,885	5.7%	513 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$48,569	3.4%	285 sh, 2 legs
INTC	$29,112	2.0%	300 sh, 0 legs
AMZN	$24,798	1.7%	100 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$10,634	0.7%	200 sh, 0 legs
TSLA	$355	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$106	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written price level) at $360, 5% away.
No position moved more than 5% today. Biggest was AMZN -2.19%.

All 37 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation (nearest written price level)	$343.99	≥ $360	4.7% up
GOOG - tranche 3 confirmation	$340.55	≥ $360	5.7% up
GOOG - tranche 2 weakness	$340.55	≤ $317	6.9% down
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$343.99	≤ $317	7.8% down
GOOG - thesis break, close regardless of price	$340.55	≤ $280	17.8% down
GOOGL - thesis break	$343.99	≤ $280	18.6% down
GOOG - washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$340.55	≤ $260	23.6% down
GOOGL - crash powder, deploy the $100k reserve	$343.99	≤ $260	24.4% down
GOOGL - do not chase strikes past 380-390 short	$343.99	≥ $430	25.0% up
GOOGL - close every short put	$343.99	≥ $434	26.2% up
MU - collar roll-up (the only written MU price level, and it is above spot)	$924.42	≥ $1,250	35.2% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max, apply the buy-it-fresh test	$343.99	≥ $500	45.4% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs, roll the collar up or accept the cap	$343.99	≥ $600	74.4% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Net cash / NLV (FIRED this run, on the denominator alone)	-0.050392	< -0.05 amber	$561.35 over; $11,227.01 of NLV recovery clears it
Dec-28 30-delta put IV	35.64%	> 43%	+7.4 pt
GOOGL IV, crash trigger	35.64%	> 50%	+14.4 pt
11x Dec-28 300/400 call spread, mark vs width	43.04%	>= 90%	+46.9 pt
8x Sep-27 300/440 call spread, mark vs width	40.00%	>= 90%	+50.0 pt
10x Dec-28 350/500 call spread, mark vs width	30.21%	>= 90%	+59.8 pt
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic	$54.68	< $5	$49.68
Excess liquidity / NLV	76.45%	< 40%	+36.5 pt
NLV change on the week	+0.39%	-8% in one week	+8.39 pt
Defined max loss vs program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 headroom
Short GOOG/GOOGL calls vs shares held	1,600 shares called against 1,543 held	no written rule exists	57 shares uncovered, unchanged since the 09-14 collar
Biggest single-name move	AMZN -2.19%	>= 5%	-2.81 pt

calendar	date	away
Wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots - the prior-30-day precondition still fails, see gaps	2026-09-17	2d
Micron fiscal Q4 print (not a trigger row)	2026-09-30	15d
Clean sale date for the loss lots IF only the 08-31 300C buys count as replacement property	2026-10-01	16d
Clean sale date IF the 09-14 written 445C also counts - the doc does not say which	2026-10-15	30d
Alphabet Q3 print, scheduled thesis adjudicator - re-read the house view within 72h	2026-10-28	43d
No crash by this date: deploy the $100k reserve at market anyway	2026-10-29	44d
Earliest date the GPU glut tripwire can evaluate a 90-day baseline	2026-11-16	62d
Alphabet capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	141d
GOOG lots vest long-term (+66 sh): add collar put leg 9 - unaffected by the Sep-2027 collar	2027-03-13	179d
GOOG lots vest long-term (+200 sh): add collar put legs 10-11 - unaffected	2027-04-02	199d
Runbook says +350 sh vest (legs 12-14). 193 of those 350 are clock-stopped by the 09-14 collar; the row no longer holds as written	2027-06-05	263d
Runbook says +50 sh vest (leg 15). All 50 are clock-stopped by the 09-14 collar; the row no longer holds as written	2027-06-25	283d

Spot prices

	last	day
GOOG	$340.55	-1.5%
GOOGL	$343.99	-1.5%
MU	$924.42	+0.0%
AMZN	$247.98	-2.2%
DIS	$106.22	-2.2%
EQT	$53.17	-0.1%
INTC	$97.04	-0.2%
META	$669.83	+0.6%
NVDA	$211.81	+0.4%
RDDT	$159.62	-1.7%
TSLA	$354.91	-1.1%
VOO	$695.64	-0.5%

The check itself

changed ops/status.py now exists and answers - the structured route is live, and its verdict is that the job has still never run.
This morning section 4a had no structured route at all: ~/code/financials/ops/ held only __init__.py and an empty tests/. Between then and now it was built. ops/status.py landed at 08:03, check_no_data_loss.py at 08:01, run_daily.sh at 09:37, a README at 09:40, and the LaunchAgent plist was rewritten at 08:03 to point at ops/run_daily.sh. Running it this run: exit 10, 'no daily record in ops/status.jsonl: the job has not run, or the log was removed'. That is accurate rather than broken - status.jsonl does not exist yet and ops/logs/ is empty, because launchctl still reports runs = 0 and last exit code = (never exited). So question 2, the gate_examined count, has no value today for the same reason it had none this morning: there is no run to count. Read-only, per the section's own rule - nothing was edited, committed, rerun or reloaded.
found this run The prompt's own 4a fallback now points at a path that no longer exists.
The markets prompt's fallback block globs stocks-dashboard/cron/logs/*.log and lists COMMIT_REFUSED files from that directory. That directory is gone from the repo - not empty, absent - so the fallback commands now fail rather than return nothing, and the prompt's guidance to read a SUMMARY: line from the newest log cannot be followed. The logging moved to ops/logs/ with the rest of the rewrite. The fallback block needs repointing, or removing now that the structured route exists. That is an edit to the prompt, so it is a proposal, not something this run did.
unchanged Neither market-check slot can ever observe a same-day pipeline run.
Reported this morning and still true after the rewrite, because the schedule did not change. StartCalendarInterval is 12:45 local, Monday through Friday. This midday check reads the answer at 12:39 - six minutes before the job can start. The open run asks six hours early. Question 1 answers 'no' on every run, every day, by construction. The fix is a scheduling decision, not a code change: either the pipeline moves earlier than 06:35, or 4a is rewritten to judge the PREVIOUS run rather than today's. Today at 12:45 is the first slot the job has ever had working code pointed at it, so the 06:35 run tomorrow is the first one that can return a real gate_examined count.

Rails that could not be evaluated

The net-cash rail did exactly what this morning's run said it would, and that is the finding rather than the breach. Cash is -$72,209.98 at yesterday's close, at the open and now - identical to the cent across all three. The amber line is a fixed fraction of NLV, so it moved from -$72,217.43 to -$71,648.63 as net liquidation fell $11,375.93 on a down tape, and the rail crossed. Nothing was bought, sold or borrowed. A rail that flips between amber and clear on a 0.8% move in the denominator, with the numerator frozen, is reporting the market rather than the risk. The IPS sets the level and this run does not change it, but it is worth a ruling on whether the ratio should carry a hysteresis band or be measured on a closing basis.
No rail, in any approved doc, covers short-call coverage against the share count. Unchanged from this morning and unchanged by today's tape: 45 short GOOG/GOOGL call contracts against 29 long, 16 net short, 1,600 shares called against 1,543 held, 57 uncovered. rails.json carries exactly one program, the Dec-2028 put campaign, whose every_short_capped rail tests put legs only - it reports all 30 short legs capped and is correct on its own terms. Nothing anywhere tests calls against stock. This run does not add the rule: a rule that is not in a doc Gabriel approved does not go in the file.
Three Sep-2027 legs are invisible to every rail. rails.json's single program is the Dec-2028 put campaign; the 8x Sep-27 300/440 spread opened 08-31 and the 3x Sep-27 305P/445C collar filled 09-14 sit entirely outside it. The 300/440 spread is swept by hand under the runbook's 90%-of-width row - 40.00% today - but only because this run walks that table manually. No script would catch it.
The runbook's June-2027 vest calendar no longer holds and the runbook still says it does. Part 2's calendar row schedules collar put legs 12-14 on 2027-06-05 (+350 sh) and leg 15 on 2027-06-25 (+50 sh). Gabriel's own 09-14 straddle identification states the consequence: the identified lots' holding-period clock stops while the collar is open, per Reg 1.1092(b)-2T, covering 193 of the 350 and all 50. Those legs are scheduled against conversion dates that have stopped advancing. The runbook is a doc Gabriel approved, so this run does not edit it; the divergence is the report. The 2027-03-13 and 04-02 rows are unaffected.
The wash-sale window opens in two days and its stated precondition cannot be met. Runbook Part 2's 2026-09-17 row says 'IF selling: confirm zero GOOG/GOOGL acquisitions (shares, calls, DRIP) in the prior 30 days'. The 09-13 run established that 8 GOOGL Sep-27 300 CALLs were bought to open on 2026-08-31, seventeen days before the window opens, and investing/tax-rules says any call on the stock is replacement property for a stock loss. The answer to the confirmation is no. Earliest clean sale date is 2026-10-01, and only if no further GOOG/GOOGL buy lands before then. Separately, tax-rules still does not say whether a WRITTEN call is replacement property; if the 09-14 445C counts, the clean date moves to 2026-10-15. Nothing is proposed - the THEN column says confirm, and the confirmation fails.

Where the numbers came from

Run label decided from the rails log, not the clock: rails-log.jsonl already carried a 2026-09-15 markets-open entry at 06:40:43, so this is the midday run. Sections 4b (GPU pull) and 5 (forecast pass) were skipped by that rule, not by the time of day.
Book pulled 19:38Z / 12:38 PDT, about an hour before the close. 33 position rows, the same 33 as the open run, with zero quantity changes on any contract_id.
Prior closes: the connector's prior-close field returned empty on all twelve equities again, so each was derived as last minus the same response's change field. All twelve derived values reproduce the open run's prior closes exactly, to the cent, which is the cross-check.
Campaign IV read, not solved: GOOGL Dec-28 340P option-midpoint-iv annualIv 0.35636809058081603, isValid true, cross-checked against the separate implied_vol field at 0.3563458046189925. Identical to the open run's reading.
Runbook Parts 2, 3 and 4 were walked row by row against this run's own quotes and position marks. The three call-spread width percentages (43.04%, 40.00%, 30.21%), the 340P extrinsic ($54.68), the excess-liquidity ratio (76.45%) and the one-week NLV change (+0.39% against 2026-09-08's open-run $1,427,340.73) were each recomputed rather than carried.
Repair debit is the 360P mark minus the 280P mark on 5 spreads: (65.3234024 - 28.9490795) x 500 = $18,187.16.
The net-cash breach is stated as $561.35 because that is the actionable form: the amber line is -0.05 x $1,432,972.59 = -$71,648.63 and cash is -$72,209.98. The equivalent NLV recovery is $11,227.01.
Section 4a is read-only. ops/status.py was executed with --check and nothing in ~/code/financials was edited, committed, rerun or reloaded; the launchd job was inspected with launchctl print and its plist read, and left alone.
Short-call coverage was counted straight off the position rows: 45 short GOOG/GOOGL call contracts (Dec-28 400C x1, 500C x10, 600C x18; Jun-27 425C x5; Sep-27 440C x8, 445C x3) against 29 long (Dec-28 300C x11, 350C x10; Sep-27 300C x8), 16 net short, 1,600 shares against 1,543 held.