2026-09-13 · midday

The US market has been shut since Friday's close, and this is the fourth consecutive read of that same finished session. The book came back byte-identical again: 32 legs, 32 marks, zero changed to eight decimals, and the account summary equal field for field. Every runbook row was swept by hand against this run's own marks and every one reproduces this morning's figure, which is the only correct result on an unchanged book. So there is no market finding at midday, and the run's one piece of new information is about this page rather than about the money: the defect filed this morning - that a midday deploy strips the cost-of-compute section off the morning's page - is now confirmed by measurement rather than inferred. The live page carried the section at 34,357 bytes before this deploy and does not carry it after. Nothing has been traded, and the standing repair order still has to be repriced on Monday.

What to do

280P x5 and 300P x8 sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one spread, limit, day · ~$18,716.70 debit ($37.4334 net per spread on Friday's closing marks)
Your playbook: “long leg never above $260 (must sit at or above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230)”
Sixteenth read of the same standing order and the third in a row to reprice to exactly the previous read, because no market has opened between the pulls. These are Friday's closing marks, not a live quote. The order must be repriced on the day it is placed, which is Monday at the earliest. Nothing has been traded.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
net_cash_ratio	-0.0654	amber -0.05, red -0.10	amber
gross_leverage	1.724x	amber 1.3x, red 1.5x	red
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.66x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.94x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
The rail the action item above addresses. No leg has been traded.
net_cash_ratio
-0.148 when the policy was signed. Cash is unchanged to the cent at -$93,230.12 since 09-04.
gross_leverage
1.57x when the policy was signed. This rail divides gross position value by net liquidation, which counts both legs of every spread; the delta rails measure the same book at 0.66x and 0.94x and both are clear.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-13: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$797,703	55.9%	1543 sh, 16 legs
MU	$143,099	10.0%	525 sh, 2 legs
META	$93,252	6.5%	144 sh, 0 legs
VOO	$86,463	6.1%	123 sh, 0 legs
RDDT	$80,777	5.7%	513 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$49,671	3.5%	285 sh, 2 legs
INTC	$30,915	2.2%	300 sh, 0 legs
AMZN	$25,670	1.8%	100 sh, 0 legs
BRK B	$20,422	1.4%	40 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$10,814	0.8%	200 sh, 0 legs
TSLA	$365	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$106	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is tranche 2 weakness (nearest written level, and what rails.py reads) at $317, 5% away.
No position moved more than 5% today. Biggest was INTC +2.72%.

All 28 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOG · tranche 2 weakness (nearest written level, and what rails.py reads)	$335.38	≤ $317	5.5% down
GOOGL · tranche 2 weakness	$338.39	≤ $317	6.3% down
GOOGL · tranche 3 confirmation	$338.39	≥ $360	6.4% up
GOOG · tranche 3 confirmation	$335.38	≥ $360	7.3% up
GOOG · thesis break, close regardless of price	$335.38	≤ $280	16.5% down
GOOG · washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$335.38	≤ $260	22.5% down
GOOGL · crash powder, deploy the $100k reserve	$338.39	≤ $260	23.2% down
MU · collar roll-up	$975.07	≥ $1,250	28.2% up
GOOGL · close every short put	$338.39	≥ $434	28.2% up
GOOGL · long spreads near max, apply the buy-it-fresh test	$338.39	≥ $500	47.8% up
GOOGL · shares capped by the 600Cs, roll the collar up	$338.39	≥ $600	77.3% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Dec-28 30-delta put IV	36.19%	> 43%	+6.8 pt
GOOGL IV, crash trigger	36.19%	> 50%	+13.8 pt
Dec-28 300/400 call spread, mark vs width	41.48%	>= 90%	+48.5 pt
8x Sep-27 300/440 call spread, mark vs width	38.07%	>= 90%	+51.9 pt
10x Dec-28 350/500 call spread, mark vs width	28.94%	>= 90%	+61.1 pt
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic	$56.32	< $5	$51.32
Excess liquidity / NLV	74.78%	< 40%	+34.8 pt
NLV change on the week	-0.17%	-8% in one week	+7.8 pt
Defined max loss vs program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 headroom
Biggest single-name move on Friday	INTC +2.72%	>= 5%	+2.3 pt of headroom

calendar	date	away
Wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots - precondition already failed, earliest clean sale 2026-10-01	2026-09-17	4d
Micron fiscal Q4 print (not a trigger row)	2026-09-30	17d
Alphabet Q3 print, scheduled thesis adjudicator - re-read the house view within 72h	2026-10-28	45d
No crash by this date: deploy the $100k reserve at market anyway	2026-10-29	46d
Earliest date the GPU glut tripwire can evaluate a 90-day baseline	2026-11-16	64d
Alphabet capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	143d
GOOG lots vest long-term (+66 sh): add collar put leg 9, log in the straddle register same day	2027-03-13	181d

Spot prices

	last	day
GOOG	$335.38	+1.5%
GOOGL	$338.39	+1.7%
MU	$975.07	-0.2%
AMZN	$256.70	+1.9%
BRK B	$510.54	+0.7%
DIS	$106.50	+0.6%
EQT	$54.07	-1.6%
INTC	$103.05	+2.7%
META	$647.58	+0.5%
NVDA	$218.26	-0.0%
RDDT	$157.46	+1.4%
TSLA	$365.25	+0.5%
VOO	$702.95	+0.9%

The check itself

confirmed A midday deploy strips the cost-of-compute section off the morning's page - now measured, not inferred.
This morning's run predicted this from reading the generator. It was checked directly this run instead. Before this deploy, https://markets.dottl.xyz/2026-09-13/ returned HTTP 200 at 34,357 bytes and its section headings were What to do, Still over unchanged, Everything else clear, Cost of compute, The check itself. Both runs of a day write to the same <out>/<date>/index.html, the midday report legitimately carries no gpu block because the spot pull is an open-run job, and the generator renders the section only when that block is present. So the cost-of-compute section is gone from the page after this deploy. The generator was again not edited: it owns the layout, the procedure forbids carrying a number forward from another run, and which run should own the dated page is a design question for Gabriel, not a styling change to make mid-run. The data is not lost - it is in report-2026-09-13.open.json and in gpu-spot-daily.csv.
standing The same defect applies to the sell-side section, and the live page already showed it.
The morning page's own headings, listed above, contain no What other people said section, because that block renders only when there is at least one new per-analyst call and this morning had none. A reader cannot tell an empty result from a pass that did not run. This is the same conditional-render shape as the cost-of-compute defect, one section over, and it was visible on the deployed page before this run touched anything.
recurring option-midpoint-iv returned the shut-market artifact again.
annualIv -15.8745 with isValid false on the Dec-28 340P, the ninth recorded occurrence and every one of them on a closed or pre-market book. The valid implied_vol field, 0.36190194301204803, is what the rails read, byte-identical to this morning and to yesterday.
green The connector and the pull itself.
Three connector calls plus 14 snapshots, zero retries. All 13 equities returned top_status FROZEN, and all 13 prior closes were served directly by the endpoint's own prior-close field with no reconstruction and no history call. Positions and summary diffed field by field against the 06:38 pull: 32 rows, the same 32 contract_ids, zero quantity diffs, zero mark diffs, summary equal field for field. Quotes are value-identical to the 06:39 file, differing only by a trailing newline.

Rails that could not be evaluated

stressed_excess_liquidity is still unevaluated. It needs IBKR Risk Navigator at -30% price and +50% implied vol with the TWS gateway up, and has never once been measured. It is the rail that would actually price the crash scenarios Part 3 is built around.
The glut tripwire still cannot fire. It is defined as H100 spot 20% or more below its level 90 days back, and the daily series starts 2026-08-18, so no 90-day reference exists. Earliest evaluable date is around 2026-11-16.
The SemiAnalysis composite the tripwire is written against is still the 2026-04 print at $2.82, five months stale, with later months paywalled. The daily marketplace numbers are being compared to an anchor that has not moved since April.
The 8x Dec-28 300P leg is outside the long-leg band and has no written repair order. Every page in this series proposes the 280P repair and says nothing actionable about the 300Ps, because nothing actionable is written. 8 of the 13 out-of-band contracts have no remedy on paper.
short_dec28_340p_extrinsic is listed unevaluated in rails.json but was computable this run and was swept by hand against the runbook: $56.32 against a $5 trigger. The file's stated reason - that it needs a live Dec-2028 chain pull - is wrong; the position row's own mark is enough. The file was not edited, because this check does not edit the rails to match the book.
embed.reddit.com, the written date-and-score authority for the WSB source, was found blocked by this morning's run and was not re-tested here because the forecast pass is an open-run job. Nothing in this run depends on it.

Where the numbers came from

Run label decided from the rails log, not the clock: an entry dated 2026-09-13 already carried run markets-open, so this is the midday run and the GPU pull and the forecast pass were both correctly skipped.
Sunday, the US market is shut. The book is Friday 2026-09-11's finished session for the fourth time, and all 13 equities returned top_status FROZEN.
Book pulled 19:38Z / 12:38 PDT and diffed field by field against this morning's 06:38 pull: 32 rows, the same 32 contract_ids, zero quantity diffs, zero mark diffs, summary equal field for field.
Prior closes: all 13 served directly by the endpoint's own prior-close field, no reconstruction and no history call.
Campaign IV read, not solved: option-midpoint-iv returned the shut-market artifact (annualIv -15.8745, isValid false), so the valid implied_vol field, 0.36190194301204803, is what the rails read.
Runbook Parts 2, 3 and 4 were swept row by row against this run's own position marks rather than copied. The three call-spread width percentages (41.48%, 38.07%, 28.94%), the 340P extrinsic ($56.32) and the excess-liquidity ratio (74.78%) were each recomputed and each reproduces this morning's figure, which is the expected result on an identical book.
Repair debit is the 360P mark minus the 280P mark on 5 spreads: (68.8750000 - 31.4416008) x 500 = $18,716.70, unchanged because neither mark moved.
The solved repair sensitivity was recomputed from scratch, not carried: each leg's implied volatility solved off its own mark at r=4%, q=0, T=2.2575y (824 days), then delta-differenced. 360P 37.241% delta -0.3705, 280P 36.916% delta -0.2172, giving $76.64 per dollar of GOOGL. Across r 3-5% and q 0-1% the figure spans $71.27-$86.14.
Week-over-week net liquidation is measured against 2026-09-06, the previous Sunday, so both sides are a frozen book carrying a Friday close: $1,426,052.75 against $1,428,489.17, -0.17%.
The page defect was measured with a direct curl of https://markets.dottl.xyz/2026-09-13/ before this run's deploy: HTTP 200, 34,357 bytes, section headings enumerated from the returned HTML.