2026-09-11 · midday

Nothing new broke. The same three structural rails are open, every runbook trigger is clear, and Alphabet is 5.7% above the nearest written level - the widest that gap has been in this series. The one thing this run adds is a test of the repair-sensitivity question the last four pages have been arguing about, and it settles it. Alphabet moved 31 cents between this morning's run and this one, the smallest gap on record between two reads. Measuring the old way - change in debit over change in spot - the repair would price at $571 per dollar of Alphabet, against $97.60 published this morning, $141.60 yesterday and $139 on Tuesday. That figure is not a discovery; it is what happens when a 31-cent denominator divides a $177 numerator. Solving the legs instead gives $77.34 per dollar, against $78 this morning - under one percent apart across the session. The solved coefficient is the instrument and the fitted one is noise, which is exactly what this morning's page claimed and could not yet prove on a second reading. The $153 the delta term does not explain is vol: both legs repriced down, the 360 put by 0.23 of a point and the 280 put by 0.09, so the skew between them narrowed to 0.47 points from 0.85 yesterday morning. The repair now costs $18,683.47, the cheapest of twelve reads.

What to do

280P x5 and 300P x8 sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one spread, limit, day · ~$18,683.47 debit ($37.3669 net per spread on this run's live marks)
Your playbook: “long leg never above $260 (must sit at or above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230)”
Twelfth read of the same standing order and the cheapest of the twelve. The series: $18,769.60 on six frozen-market runs, $18,793.92 Tuesday, $19,885.61 Wednesday morning, $19,570.59 Wednesday midday, $19,996.15 Thursday morning, $19,448.05 Thursday midday, $18,860.50 this morning, $18,683.47 now. This run is the cleanest available test of the question the last four pages have disagreed about, because Alphabet barely moved: $338.78 this morning to $339.09 now, 31 cents. The debit fell $177.03. Dividing one by the other gives $571 per dollar of Alphabet. Nobody should believe that, and that is the point - the same arithmetic gave $139 on Tuesday, $141.60 yesterday and $97.60 this morning, and the spread of those four numbers is a property of the denominator, not of the position. Solving each leg's implied vol off its own mark and differencing the deltas gives $77.34 per dollar today against $78 this morning, stable to under one percent across five and a half hours and a full session of trading. That is the number to reprice against, and it still has to be repriced on the day. The residual is vol, and it is measurable here: the 360 put solved at 36.84% against 37.07% this morning and the 280 put at 36.38% against 36.47%, so both legs cheapened and the deeper one cheapened faster. The skew between the strikes is now 0.47 vol points, against 0.85 on Thursday morning - the strikes have converged for a second consecutive session, and a narrowing skew is what makes this order cheaper independent of where Alphabet trades. No urgency is implied. The rail has been open for weeks, Gabriel sets the timing, and the only claim here is about how to price the order, not when to send it. Only the 5x 280P leg is reachable by this order; the 8x 300P leg has no written repair. Written 20 minutes before the close.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
net_cash_ratio	-0.065	amber -0.05, red -0.10	amber
gross_leverage	1.723x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	red
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.66x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.94x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
The rail the action item above addresses. No leg has been traded.
net_cash_ratio
Cash -$93,230.12 against NLV $1,425,946.98. The cash figure has not moved by a cent since 2026-09-04, a tenth consecutive session, so this ratio tracks NLV alone. It improved from -0.0652 at the open run to -0.0654 now, which is NLV giving back $3,402 of this morning's gain. Nothing was bought or sold.
gross_leverage
Gross $2,456,375.99 over NLV $1,425,946.98. Carried caveat, unchanged: this divides GROSS position value by NLV against thresholds the IPS wrote for delta notional, and the delta rows read 0.66x and 0.94x, so the red reading overstates true leverage. The book and the written rule disagree; rails.json was not edited to reconcile them.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-11: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$801,902	56.2%	1543 sh, 16 legs
MU	$142,120	10.0%	525 sh, 2 legs
META	$93,518	6.6%	144 sh, 0 legs
VOO	$86,494	6.1%	123 sh, 0 legs
RDDT	$80,941	5.7%	513 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$49,694	3.5%	285 sh, 2 legs
INTC	$30,933	2.2%	300 sh, 0 legs
AMZN	$25,725	1.8%	100 sh, 0 legs
BRK B	$20,380	1.4%	40 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$10,808	0.8%	200 sh, 0 legs
TSLA	$365	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$106	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is tranche 2 weakness (nearest written level, and what rails.py reads) at $317, 6% away.
No position moved more than 5% today. Biggest was INTC +2.78%.

All 27 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOG · tranche 2 weakness (nearest written level, and what rails.py reads)	$336.08	≤ $317	5.7% down
GOOGL · tranche 3 confirmation	$339.09	≥ $360	6.2% up
GOOGL · tranche 2 weakness	$339.09	≤ $317	6.5% down
GOOG · tranche 3 confirmation	$336.08	≥ $360	7.1% up
GOOG · thesis break, close regardless of price	$336.08	≤ $280	16.7% down
GOOG · washout, stop selling spreads and buy stock	$336.08	≤ $260	22.6% down
GOOGL · crash powder, deploy the $100k reserve	$339.09	≤ $260	23.3% down
GOOGL · close every short put	$339.09	≥ $434	28.0% up
MU · collar roll-up	$975.66	≥ $1,250	28.1% up
GOOGL · long spreads near max, apply the buy-it-fresh test	$339.09	≥ $500	47.5% up
GOOGL · shares capped by the 600Cs, roll the collar up	$339.09	≥ $600	76.9% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Dec-28 30-delta put IV	35.83%	> 43%	+7.2 pt
GOOGL IV, crash trigger	35.83%	> 50%	+14.2 pt
Dec-28 300/400 call spread, mark vs width	41.64%	>= 90%	+48.4 pt
8x Sep-27 300/440 call spread, mark vs width	38.36%	>= 90%	+51.6 pt
10x Dec-28 350/500 call spread, mark vs width	28.90%	>= 90%	+61.1 pt
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic	$56.12	< $5	$51.12
Excess liquidity / NLV	74.79%	< 40%	+34.8 pt
NLV change on the week	+0.21%	-8% in one week	+8.2 pt
Defined max loss vs program cap	$175,059	$200,000	$24,941 headroom
Biggest single-name move today	INTC +2.78%	>= 5%	+2.2 pt of headroom

calendar	date	away
Wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots	2026-09-17	6d
Micron fiscal Q4 print (not a trigger row)	2026-09-30	19d
Alphabet Q3 print, scheduled thesis adjudicator - re-read the house view within 72h	2026-10-28	47d
No crash by this date: deploy the $100k reserve at market anyway	2026-10-29	48d
Alphabet capex guide, second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	145d
GOOG lots vest long-term (+66 sh): add collar put leg 9, log in the straddle register same day	2027-03-13	183d

Spot prices

	last	day
GOOG	$336.08	+1.7%
GOOGL	$339.09	+2.0%
MU	$975.66	-0.2%
AMZN	$257.25	+2.1%
BRK B	$509.50	+0.5%
DIS	$106.48	+0.6%
EQT	$54.04	-1.7%
INTC	$103.11	+2.8%
META	$649.43	+0.8%
NVDA	$218.46	+0.0%
RDDT	$157.78	+1.6%
TSLA	$365.08	+0.4%
VOO	$703.20	+0.9%

The check itself

found this run The broker's option-midpoint-iv field is frozen on the campaign leg.
The GOOGL Dec-28 340 put returns annualIv 0.35825085013546526, isValid true - byte-identical to this morning's reading across five and a half hours, while that leg's own mark moved from 57.4208 to 57.0288 and Alphabet moved 31 cents. The separate implied-vol field on the same call did move, from 36.02% to 35.87%, and now sits 0.05 vol points from the midpoint field against 0.19 this morning. The leg is the only instrument in the book returning top_status DELAYED. Read the midpoint field as stale on this leg, not as evidence that campaign vol was flat today. Nothing turns on the choice: both fields read about 35.8%, 7.2 points below the 43% tranche-2 rail and 14.2 below the 50% crash rail, and solving the same leg off its own mark gives 36.58%, a +0.71 point bias consistent with the +0.68 and +0.94 disclosed on the two previous runs.
found this run Every connector call succeeded on the first attempt.
Positions, summary and 14 price snapshots, 16 of 16, zero retries. All 13 equity quotes came back top_status REALTIME inside a 57-second window, 19:37:18 to 19:38:15Z - the tightest window of the week. Second consecutive clean run after Thursday morning's total get_price_snapshot outage.
will happen again The prior-close field filled in for only 2 of 13 names.
BRK B and RDDT served; the other 11 are reconstructed as last minus the endpoint's own change field. The rate has now printed 1, 5, 1, 5 and 2 of 13 across five consecutive runs, which kills both explanations this page has offered for it - Wednesday midday's time-of-day theory and Wednesday morning's read of 1-of-13 as degradation. It is arbitrary. It also cost nothing: all 13 prior closes, served and derived alike, reproduce the open run's independently established 09-10 closes to the cent, so the two runs reached the same 13 numbers by different routes and no daily-bar pull was needed.
will happen again One position row did not move.
DIS carries the identical 106.49500275 mark as this morning against a live REALTIME last of 106.48. The same stale-row pattern seen on 09-08. It is one share and $106, 0.007% of NLV, and it affects no rail - but the check should not be reporting '31 of 32 marks moved' as if the 32nd were explained.
never worked The fitted repair sensitivity was never a coefficient, and this run proves it on the smallest move available.
Tuesday's page published about $139 of debit per dollar of Alphabet, Thursday midday measured $141.60 and read the agreement as confirmation, this morning measured $97.60 and rejected the whole idea. Today Alphabet moved 31 cents and the same arithmetic returns $571. Four readings spanning $97.60 to $571 are not four measurements of one quantity; they are one numerator divided by four denominators, the smallest of which is 31 cents. The solved figure does hold: $77.34 today against $78 this morning, from the delta difference between the 5 short 360 puts and the 5 long 280 puts. Use the solved number, reprice it on the day, and treat any future ratio-of-differences as a diagnostic of vol rather than a sensitivity.
will happen again The midday slot still runs 25 minutes before the close, not an hour.
The prompt defines this run as noon Pacific, one hour before the close. The cron entry is '35 6,12 * * *', so the book was pulled at 12:35 PDT with 25 minutes left in the session. Reported since Wednesday; nothing edited, because the cron is written configuration and this run does not change it. It cost nothing again today - a quote 22 minutes before the bell is a live quote.

Rails that could not be evaluated

The campaign IV that three rails read - the 43% tranche-2 trigger, the 50% crash trigger and the vol input to every solved figure on this page - comes from an instrument the broker stamps DELAYED, and one of its two IV fields did not update at all today. The rails are 7 and 14 points away, so the gap is currently harmless. It would not be if vol were near either level.
stressed_excess_liquidity is still unevaluated. It needs IBKR Risk Navigator at -30% price and +50% IV with the TWS gateway up, and has never once been measured. This is the rail that would actually price the crash scenarios the runbook's Part 3 is built around.
short_dec28_340p_extrinsic is listed unevaluated in rails.json but was computable this run and was swept by hand against the runbook: $56.12 against a $5 trigger. The rails file's stated reason - 'needs a live Dec-2028 chain pull' - is wrong; the position row's own mark is sufficient. The file was not edited.
The 8x Dec-28 300P leg is outside the long-leg band and has no written repair order. Every page in this series proposes the 280P repair and says nothing actionable about the 300Ps, because nothing actionable is written. 8 of the 13 out-of-band contracts have no remedy on paper.
The glut tripwire still has no 90-day baseline and cannot fire before roughly 2026-11-16, as this morning's page established. No GPU pull runs at midday, so nothing here revisits it.

Where the numbers came from

Run label decided from the rails log, not the clock: 2026-09-11 already carried a markets-open entry at 07:30, so this is the midday run and sections 4b (GPU) and 5 (forecasts) were skipped by rule.
Book pulled 19:35Z / 12:35 PDT. 32 rows, the same 32 contract_ids as the open run, zero quantity diffs, 31 of 32 marks changed. Nothing traded. Cash -93,230.12 unchanged to the cent for a tenth consecutive session since 09-04.
All 13 equity quotes are single get_price_snapshot calls stamped 19:37:18-19:38:15Z, every one top_status REALTIME with an unhalted last-trade stamp inside that window.
Prior closes: 2 served by the endpoint (BRK B 507.00, RDDT 155.34), 11 reconstructed as last minus the endpoint's own change field. All 13 reproduce the open run's 09-10 closes to the cent. No price estimated and no get_price_history call made.
Campaign IV read, not solved: option-midpoint-iv 0.358251 on the Dec-28 340 put, isValid true, flagged in plumbing as byte-identical to the open run's value. The cross-check field implied-vol reads 0.358728.
Per-leg vols solved with rails.py's own solve_iv at r=4%, q=0, T=2.2630y, each leg off its own position mark: 360P 36.84%, 340P 36.58%, 280P 36.38%. Deltas from the same vols: 360P -0.3698, 280P -0.2151.
Repair debit is the 360P mark minus the 280P mark on 5 spreads: (67.8983612 - 30.53141975) x 500 = $18,683.47.
Runbook Parts 2, 3 and 4 swept by hand against this run's numbers. Every row clear. Part 2: $434 is +27.99% away on GOOGL, $500 +47.45%, $600 +76.94%, MU $1,250 +28.12%, the three call spreads at 41.64%, 38.36% and 28.90% of width against the 90% row. Part 3: $260 is -23.32% away, IV 35.83% against 50%, NLV +0.21% on the week against the -8% freeze. Part 4: excess liquidity 74.79% of NLV against the 40% amber, 340P extrinsic $56.12 against the $5 assignment watch.
Weekly NLV comparison uses the 2026-09-04 open run's 1,422,954.07; there was no 09-04 midday run.
rails.json was not edited. No ledger row was added, changed or removed.