2026-09-06 · midday

Nothing moved. The market has been shut since Friday evening and this is the fourth read of that same finished session, so the book came back field-for-field identical again and every rail lands where it landed this morning. The one order on the page is the standing long-leg repair, which reprices to the same $18,770 off the same closing marks and is a Monday order, not a today order. Rather than copy this morning's findings forward, this run went back and checked two of them at source. Both hold: the GPU glut tripwire genuinely cannot fire, confirmed by reading the code rather than the output - it asks for a price from 90 days back, the daily series is 19 rows old, so the comparison returns nothing and the flag is never set, and the earliest date it can evaluate is 2026-11-16. The missing 2026-08-29 row in the daily GPU file is also real. The nearest thing to a live level is tranche-2 weakness at $317, 5.6% below GOOG.

What to do

280P x5 and 300P x8 sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one spread, limit, day · ~$18,770 debit ($37.5392 net per spread on this run's marks)
Your playbook: “long leg never above $260 (must sit at or above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230)”
The same standing order, repriced from the book's own marks. The 360P closes at 68.6067 and the 280P at 31.0675, netting $37.5392 per spread for the fourth run running - both legs still carry Friday's closing marks, so an identical reprice is the correct result, not a stuck number. Only the 5x 280P leg is reachable by this order; the 8x 300P leg has no written repair. This is a Monday order.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.

rail	now	limit
long_leg_band	280P x5, 300P x8	$230-$260 band	13 contracts outside
net_cash_ratio	-0.065	amber -0.05, red -0.10	amber
gross_leverage	1.741x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	red
top2_name_delta_ratio	0.67x	amber 0.70x, red 0.85x	clear
total_delta_ratio	0.94x	amber 1.30x, red 1.50x	clear

Why each one reads the way it does

long_leg_band
The rail the action item above addresses. No leg was traded and no mark moved.
net_cash_ratio
Cash -$93,230.12 against NLV $1,428,489.17, both identical to this morning, so the ratio is identical too.
gross_leverage
Gross $2,487,660.42 over NLV $1,428,489.17, unchanged. Carried caveat: this divides GROSS position value by NLV against thresholds the IPS wrote for delta notional, and the delta rows in this same table read 0.67x and 0.94x, so the red reading overstates true leverage.

delta by name

Delta notional per name as of 2026-09-06: stock at delta one, each option leg at the Black-Scholes delta implied by its own mark. Top two: GOOG, MU.

name	delta notional	of NLV
GOOG	$808,606	56.6%	1543 sh, 16 legs
MU	$142,640	10.0%	525 sh, 2 legs
META	$88,589	6.2%	144 sh, 0 legs
VOO	$87,042	6.1%	123 sh, 0 legs
RDDT	$79,258	5.5%	513 sh, 0 legs
NVDA	$51,000	3.6%	285 sh, 2 legs
INTC	$28,767	2.0%	300 sh, 0 legs
AMZN	$25,830	1.8%	100 sh, 0 legs
BRK B	$20,220	1.4%	40 sh, 0 legs
EQT	$11,034	0.8%	200 sh, 0 legs
TSLA	$353	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs
DIS	$105	0.0%	1 sh, 0 legs

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is GOOG - tranche 2 weakness (nearest written level, and what rails.py reads) at $317, 6% away.
TSLA -6.2%, now $352.89. No written rule for it.
Friday's move, re-read unchanged. The position is one share, about $353. No written rule, so nothing is proposed.
MU +5.9%, now $1,014.91. No written rule for it.
Friday's move, re-read unchanged. Micron is not a program in rails.json, so nothing is proposed off the move itself. The runbook's own MU row was swept again this run and is clear: the $1,250 collar-roll level is 23.16% away.

All 27 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOG - tranche 2 weakness (nearest written level, and what rails.py reads)	$335.72	≤ $317	5.6% down
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation	$338.72	≥ $360	6.3% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness	$338.72	≤ $317	6.4% down
GOOG - tranche 3 confirmation	$335.72	≥ $360	7.2% up
GOOGL - thesis break, close regardless of price	$338.72	≤ $280	17.3% down
MU - roll the collar	$1,014.91	≥ $1,250	23.2% up
GOOGL - Rule 8 crash powder / washout buy	$338.72	≤ $260	23.2% down
GOOGL - do not chase strikes past here	$338.72	≥ $430	26.9% up
GOOGL - Rule 6, close every short put	$338.72	≥ $434	28.1% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max	$338.72	≥ $500	47.6% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs	$338.72	≥ $600	77.1% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Dec-28 30-delta put IV	35.7%	> 43%	+7.3 pt
GOOGL IV, crash trigger	35.7%	> 50%	+14.3 pt
11x Dec-28 300/400 call spread, mark vs width	42.05%	>= 90%	+47.9 pt
8x Sep-27 300/440 call spread, mark vs width	38.51%	>= 90%	+51.5 pt
10x Dec-28 350/500 call spread, mark vs width	29.29%	>= 90%	+60.7 pt
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic, assignment watch	$56.49	< $5	$51.49
Excess liquidity / NLV	74.41%	< 40% amber	+34.4 pt
NLV, one-week change vs the 72-hour freeze	+0.70%	-8% in a week	+8.7 pt
Program defined max loss	$175,059	$200,000 cap	$24,941 headroom

calendar	date	away
Wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots	2026-09-17	11d
Micron fiscal Q4 print (not a runbook trigger row)	2026-09-30	24d
Alphabet Q3 print - scheduled thesis adjudicator	2026-10-28	52d
Reserve deploys at market if no crash by this date	2026-10-29	53d
Earliest date the GPU 90-day tripwire test can evaluate at all	2026-11-16	71d
Alphabet capex guide - second scheduled adjudicator	2027-02-03	150d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9 (+66 sh)	2027-03-13	188d

Spot prices

	last	day
GOOG	$335.72	-0.9%
GOOGL	$338.72	-1.0%
MU	$1,014.91	+5.9%
AMZN	$258.30	-0.2%
BRK B	$505.50	-0.5%
DIS	$105.18	-1.8%
EQT	$55.17	-0.8%
INTC	$95.89	+4.6%
META	$615.20	+0.7%
NVDA	$229.49	+0.5%
RDDT	$154.50	-1.0%
TSLA	$352.89	-6.2%
VOO	$707.66	-0.4%

The check itself

will happen again the GPU tripwire really is dead until November, confirmed in the code rather than carried forward.
This morning's run reported that the glut tripwire cannot fire. That is a strong claim to inherit, so this run read gpu_spot.py directly instead of repeating it. It holds. The flag is set only inside `if back == 90 and chg <= -20`, and `chg` comes from `trend(rows, row, 'h100_vast_med', 90)`, which needs a stored row dated on or before today minus 90 days. gpu-spot-daily.csv holds 19 data rows beginning 2026-08-18, so that lookup returns None, the loop hits `continue`, and `tripped` stays False on every possible input. No H100 price can set it. The earliest date the written test can evaluate is 2026-11-16. Nothing was changed - shortening the lookback or moving the tripwire onto the SemiAnalysis composite are both edits to a written rule, which is your call.
will happen again the 2026-08-29 hole in the daily GPU file is real, also re-checked at source.
The daily file runs 2026-08-18 to 2026-09-06 with 19 rows for 20 calendar days. 2026-08-29 is the missing one, confirmed by reading the date column rather than trusting the carried line. It matters more than a single absent day normally would, because the 90-day comparison above is already starved for history and every gap pushes the series further from being able to answer the question the runbook asks of it.
will happen again a fourth run against one shut session, and the second today.
This pull is field-for-field identical to the 06:35 run and to both Saturday runs: the same 32 contract_ids, the same 32 marks, NLV, cash, gross position value and excess liquidity equal to the cent, all 13 quotes equal including their last-trade timestamps (1788565824-1788566398, 19:50:24-19:59:58 ET Friday), and FROZEN status on every one. The cron '35 6,12' has no timezone anchor and no trading-day guard, so it fires on weekends and twice on each day. Rail inputs cannot change between runs on a shut market, so every verdict after the first was determined before the run began. Unchanged and unresolved.
will happen again the shut-book IV artifact reappeared, as expected.
The GOOGL Dec-28 340P returned option-midpoint-iv annualIv -15.874 with isValid false again - the known closed-book defect, now seen on 08-23, 08-29, 08-30, 09-03 and all four of the weekend runs. implied_vol's valid 0.3567735 was used, as on every prior occurrence. Two-sided bid-ask 56.65/58.05 on the frozen book. Recorded as confirmation, not as a new fault.
will happen again this page is still publicly readable by anyone with the URL.
markets.dottl.xyz has no Cloudflare Access policy in front of it, so the full book - net liquidation value, every position, every strike and quantity - is readable by anyone holding the link. Unguessable is not the same as protected. Not changed by this run either, because turning Access on changes how you reach the page from your phone. Say the word and it gets a policy on the next deploy.

Rails that could not be evaluated

The GPU tripwire cannot evaluate until 2026-11-16 - the 90-day lookback has no row to compare against. Re-verified in the code this run. This is the biggest hole in the glut watch, because runbook Part 5's monthly GPU check is written against a tripwire that does not exist yet.
The SemiAnalysis composite is five months stale at 2026-04 $2.82 and the runbook's tripwire prose is defined on it, while later months are lock-icon paywalled. The anchor and the instrument are both unavailable.
gpu-spot-daily.csv still has no 2026-08-29 row. Re-verified this run.
deploy.sh will fail again on any run where the x86_64 node at /usr/local/bin wins PATH - wrangler's workerd has no x64 binary cached. Worked around per-run, never fixed at source.
stressed_excess_liquidity - needs IBKR Risk Navigator (-30% price, +50% IV) with the TWS gateway up. Never yet measured, and the IPS amber's 7-day stress re-run has never run.
short_dec28_340p_extrinsic is still listed unmeasured in rails.json because it needs a live Dec-2028 chain pull, though the runbook's own version of the row was swept by hand this run and is clear at $56.49 against the $5 trigger.
gross_leverage divides GROSS position value by NLV against thresholds the IPS wrote for delta notional, so the red reading overstates true leverage. Unchanged and unresolved.
rails.py reads GOOGL levels off the GOOG quote, which is why the tranche-2 and tranche-3 distances differ between the two tickers in this report.
rails.py keys option-leg matching on contract_description with no contract_id fallback.
The 11x Dec-28 300/400 line is 11 long 300C against 1 short 400C, not eleven matched spreads.
The MU collar roll cannot be executed as the runbook writes it: Part 2 says 'BUY back 1400C' but there is no 1400C - the collar is 5x Dec-28 1740C short against 5x 900P long. Only the trigger row and IPS Rule 7 line 242 are stale; the book-summary line and the tax documents are already correct. First reported 08-18, and now 23% from firing.
The runbook's own 2026-09-04 note already says the MU roll-up as written is not premium-neutral: selling the 900P and buying the 1150P costs about $79k net on the 5-lot, while the roll down-and-out (810P/1560C) is a $41k credit. Re-price on the day.
The book's marks are extended-hours prints, not the official regular-hours closes the written rails say they read. Unchanged and unresolved.
The GPU intraday health check still cannot see a capture that ran and collected nothing - a row that exists but is empty raises no warning.
Seeking Alpha still 403s every headless route, so it is readable only through your Chrome and only as free-tier previews. A closed Chrome silently costs the source.
finviz's rating feed is structurally unusable for recency: its embedded chart-event JSON records rating CHANGES only, never maintains or reiterates, and holds 7 events back to 2024 with the newest at 2026-02-23.
MarketBeat is running a day or more behind stockanalysis on both names.
The Lynx Equity $1,325 MU target that trade press named as the cause of Friday's 5.92% move remains absent from both analyst databases. Still reported, still kept out of the scoring ledger.
The cron '35 6,12' still has no timezone anchor and no trading-day guard, so it ran on both weekend days and twice on each.
markets.dottl.xyz has no Cloudflare Access policy - the full book is readable by anyone with the URL. Left as-is pending your decision.

Where the numbers came from

Market CLOSED - Sunday. All 13 equity quotes came back top_status FROZEN, carrying Friday 2026-09-04's finished session, the same session the last three runs read.
get_account_positions, get_account_summary and all 14 get_price_snapshot calls succeeded on the first attempt. The run fired 11:38-11:40 CDT / 09:38-09:40 PT.
Run label decided from the rails log rather than the clock, per the rule written into the bootstrap on 09-03: an entry for today already said markets-open, so this is the midday run. The machine clock reads CDT and the slot is defined in Pacific, which is the case that rule exists for.
Book byte-identical to the 06:35 run: 32 rows, the same 32 contract_ids, zero quantity differences, 0 of 32 marks different. The saved positions.json and summary.json diff clean against this morning's copies with no content difference at all.
Account summary identical to the cent on all four rail inputs: NLV 1,428,489.17, cash -93,230.12, gross 2,487,660.42, excess liquidity 1,062,952.61.
prior_close SERVED on 13 of 13 for a fourth consecutive run, and every last/prior pair equals the prior capture to the cent.
contract_description present on all 32 rows, so defined max loss prints the complete $175,059 and uncapped_shorts was measured rather than skipped: 10 GOOG short against 10 long, 30 GOOGL short against 38 long, zero uncapped.
IV: the shut-book artifact again on the GOOGL Dec-28 340P; implied_vol's valid 0.3567735 was used. Two-sided bid-ask 56.65/58.05 on the frozen book.
Every Part 2, 3 and 4 runbook trigger row was walked by hand against this run's numbers. All clear.
The delta block is rails.py's output copied verbatim, as the prompt requires.
Weekly NLV comparison is against 08-30 midday at 1,418,522.65, the same weekday one week back.
No GPU pull and no forecast pass - both belong to the open run, which already did them today.
Two claims inherited from this morning's report were re-checked at source rather than copied: the GPU tripwire's 90-day lookback was read in gpu_spot.py, and the 2026-08-29 gap was read from the daily CSV's date column.