2026-09-04 · open

The laptop slept through the 6:35 slot, so this is today's open run firing six and a half hours late, at 14:00 ET with two hours left in the session. Nothing traded, the same three structural rails are open, and every runbook row is clear. Two things actually moved: Micron ran +4.3% through $999 and pulled the collar-roll level closer than it has ever been, and a federal judge threw out the DOJ's demand that Google sell AdX - the one scheduled antitrust adjudicator in the thesis-break list, and it landed behavioral.

What to do

Still over, unchanged

Why each one reads the way it does

Everything else clear

All 23 triggers swept, with today's number
price triggernowfires atdistance
GOOG - tranche 2 weakness (nearest written level)$335.25≤ $3175.4% down
GOOGL - tranche 3 confirmation$338.60≥ $3606.3% up
GOOGL - tranche 2 weakness$338.60≤ $3176.4% down
GOOGL - thesis break$338.60≤ $28017.3% down
GOOGL - Rule 8 crash powder / washout buy$338.60≤ $26023.2% down
MU - collar roll$999.66≥ $1,25025.0% up
GOOGL - no-chase$338.60≥ $43027.0% up
GOOGL - Rule 6 close every short put$338.60≥ $43428.2% up
GOOGL - long spreads near max$338.60≥ $50047.7% up
GOOGL - shares capped by the 600Cs$338.60≥ $60077.2% up
level triggernowfires atdistance
Dec-28 30-delta put IV35.3%> 43%+7.7 pt
Dec-28 put IV, crash trigger35.3%> 50%+14.7 pt
Long call spread 11x Dec-28 300/40041.84% of width>= 90%48.2 pt
Long call spread 8x Sep-27 300/44038.15% of width>= 90%51.9 pt
Long call spread 10x Dec-28 350/50029.16% of width>= 90%60.8 pt
GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic$55.50< $5$50.50
Excess liquidity / NLV74.29%< 40% amber, < 25% red34.3 pt
Program defined max loss$175,059 (87.5% of cap)> $200,000$24,941
NLV one-week change+0.16%-8% in one week8.2 pt
calendardateaway
Wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots2026-09-1713d
Micron fiscal Q4 print (per a Seeking Alpha contributor, not independently confirmed)2026-09-3026d
Alphabet Q3 print - scheduled thesis adjudicator2026-10-2854d
Reserve deploys at market if no crash2026-10-2955d
Spot prices
lastday
GOOG$335.25-1.1%
GOOGL$338.60-1.1%
MU$999.66+4.3%
AMZN$257.30-0.6%
BRK B$506.41-0.3%
DIS$105.82-1.3%
EQT$54.88-1.3%
INTC$94.52+3.1%
META$609.11-0.3%
NVDA$230.06+0.7%
RDDT$154.86-0.7%
TSLA$352.43-6.4%
VOO$707.33-0.5%

What other people said

Every call filed today
whoactiontargetwhen
Judge Leonie Brinkema, US District Court (EDVA)
The court rejected the structural remedies the DOJ asked for - divestiture of AdX, open-sourcing DFP's final auction logic, and contingent divestiture of DFP Remainder - and accepted most of the parties' proposed behavioral remedies as modified by the court. Reported reasoning: disrupting AdX or DFP might harm the small publishers using DFP for free, an acquisition of AdX by another party could introduce new complications, and behavioral fixes are quicker than a breakup plus years of appeals. Detail on the behavioral terms is expected when the order is unsealed, within about two weeks. This matters because runbook Part 5 lists 'antitrust remedy materially worse than behavioral' as a GOOG thesis break that closes the GOOGL call spreads regardless of price. The remedy came in behavioral. The test did NOT fire, and one of the two scheduled adjudicators in the thesis-break list has now resolved in the position's favour. Surfaced by a Seeking Alpha contributor and independently corroborated by web search this run; no action is proposed because nothing broke.
GOOGLDOJ's demand that Google sell AdX REJECTED; behavioral remedies acceptedn/a - a ruling, not a forecast2026-09-03
Passage Research (Seeking Alpha)
The most extreme call on either ledger, filed the day before Micron ran 4.3% through $999. Their words: expectations ahead of the print are 'impossible', with the risk of disappointment despite likely headline beats; Strong Sell on cyclicality, slowing growth rates and signs of peaking fundamentals; capital allocation lags peers given $26.1B YTD free cash flow; and the $204 target reflects expected margin compression, slowing revenue growth and normalization of supply-demand conditions. For scale, the sell-side mean is $1,513 and the lowest number on the stockanalysis page is $361 - this contributor is 44% below even that. The same author initiated GOOGL at Buy $432 the same day.
MUStrong Sell, $204 price target$204, implying -78.7% on the 09-03 close2026-09-03
JR Research (Seeking Alpha)
Directly answers the Sell case filed on 09-02, on the same evidence. Bruno Montoya Amador rated MU a Sell because the Strategic Customer Agreements never disclose HBM's share and carry take-or-pay terms of uncertain enforceability if prices fall. JR Research reads the identical agreements as the reason to own it: 'highly strategic customer agreements, backed by $22B in take-or-pay commitments, provide earnings stability even if pricing normalizes'. They add that MU trades at 6.5x forward earnings and that AI agentic workflows and neocloud capex are underappreciated levers beyond FY2028. Same contracts, opposite conclusions, two days apart - the supply question the glut watch turns on is genuinely contested rather than settled.
MUBuy, no targetnone stated2026-09-03
Passage Research (Seeking Alpha)
The first new individual GOOGL dollar target on the ledger since Rosenblatt's $410, and it lands just above the sell-side mean of $428.07. Their case: accelerating Search, Gemini and GCP momentum; the $200B capex surge yielding 20%+ ROIC with earnings leverage as AI monetizes; valuation undemanding at 16.6x forward with room for multiple expansion. Risks named: LLM competition, capital intensity, regulatory threats. Published 11:15 PM ET on 09-03, after both of that day's runs, so it was caught by this run's backlog sweep.
GOOGLInitiates Buy, $432 price target$432, +26% on the 09-03 close2026-09-03
Seeking Alpha contributors
Alphabet drew four contributor pieces in a day. Beyond Passage's $432 initiation: James Foord argues the infrastructure edge is the story - a 1.09 PUE cost advantage, proprietary Apollo optical switches and TPU cadence shown off at SEMICON Taiwan, and a compelling buy at 16x forward after a 20% pullback. Millennial Dividends stays long on 24% revenue growth and record 82% Cloud growth outpacing AWS in dollar additions, but flags that valuation is now 27-29x adjusted P/E, above its 15-year average, with buybacks paused in favour of equity and debt issuance. Deep Value Investing goes the other way and steps aside at neutral despite the AdX win and Berkshire making Alphabet its third largest holding, citing the chart and four months of lower lows. Worth noting the three bulls are not using the same earnings base: 16x, 16.6x and 27-29x forward on the same stock in the same 24 hours.
GOOGLFour new pieces in 24 hours, three bullish and one stepping aside$432 named once; three state none2026-09-03 and 2026-09-04
Sell side, via stockanalysis / MarketBeat / finviz
Every consensus number is unchanged for a sixth straight run: GOOGL $428.07 (stockanalysis), $420.19 (MarketBeat, 54 analysts), $426.68 (finviz); MU $1,513.11 (stockanalysis, 45 targets), $1,295.63 (MarketBeat, 38 analysts), $1,575.35 (finviz). Four new individual rows, none of them a new number: Bank of America's Justin Post maintains Buy on GOOGL with no target published, D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria maintains Hold on GOOGL with no target, and Bernstein's Mark Li maintains Buy $1,300 on MU. GOOGL's rated-analyst count on stockanalysis moved 64 to 63 while the mean held. The Bernstein row is filed with a warning: it duplicates a 09-01 record on firm, analyst, rating and target with only the date differing, so it is either a genuine reiteration or the same action re-dated, and Bernstein should not be scored twice for it.
GOOGL and MUNo target changed on either nameGOOGL mean $428.07; MU mean $1,513.112026-09-04
r/wallstreetbets
Swept 09-03 through today via Arctic Shift, twelve queries on titles and bodies across GOOG, GOOGL, Alphabet, Google, MU and Micron. Five unique posts touch the names and not one states a price target, strike, expiry, option right or a directional call with a level, so nothing goes in the ledger - which is the correct outcome, not a failed sweep. The closest are a five-ticker DCA plan naming GOOGL among TSM, NVDA, MP and ASML (13 points), a macro essay arguing credit rather than AI demand is the real constraint on the data-center boom, and a Micron meme with no body text. A sixth post did mention 'MU, MSFT, UNH leaps' but the embed host returns not-found for it, so it has no confirmable date and was dropped - no date means no horizon, and no horizon means it could never be scored. The monotonic base36-ID versus timestamp check passed on all five.
GOOGL and MUFive posts in the window, nothing filednone named2026-09-03 and 2026-09-04
consensussourcetargetanalysts
GOOGLstockanalysis$428.0763 rated / 54 targetsUnchanged for a sixth run. Rated count moved 64 to 63; the page's own JSON says 63 for the rating tally and 54 for the target average.
GOOGLMarketBeat$420.1954Unchanged. 4 hold, 45 buy, 5 strong buy.
GOOGLfinviz$426.68not disclosedUnchanged, Recom 1.27. Ratings table still stale at Jun-30-2026.
MUstockanalysis$1,513.1148 rated / 45 targetsUnchanged. Median $1,540, range $361 to $2,200.
MUMarketBeat$1,295.6338Unchanged. 3 hold, 31 buy, 4 strong buy.
MUfinviz$1,575.35not disclosedUnchanged, Recom 1.25. Ratings table still skips Aug-25 to Jun-25.

Cost of compute

Every rate, per chip and per source

Dollars per GPU-hour. Vast is a marketplace floor and runs well below contract rates, which is what the cloud and hyperscaler columns are there to show. Bold rows are current generation.

vastcloudhyperakashn
H100 SXM$2.00$4.00$7.89$2.7129
H100 NVL$2.88---6 thin
H200$4.54$4.50$10.44$4.448 thin
B200$6.01$7.88$15.18-22
A100 SXM4$0.73$2.00$3.67$1.8727
A100 PCIE$0.71---15
L40S$0.60---15
RTX 4090$0.34---64
RTX 5090$0.45---64

H100 by source. SFCompute clearing price $1.92. Composite is $2.82 as of 2026-04 (Still 2026-04 H100 $2.82, the last free print on gpu-index.semianalysis.com; later months carry a lock icon. Re-fetched and confirmed on 2026-09-03. No monthly append is due - September's first-run-of-the-month fetch happened on 09-01. The anchor is now five months stale while the written tripwire is defined on it.).

sourcenow24h avgday
vast med$2.00$2.61-16.3%
sfcompute$1.92$1.94+1.6%
getdeploying$4.00-+3.9%
akash$2.71$2.71+0.0%

The check itself

Rails that could not be evaluated
Where the numbers came from