BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT| rail | now | limit | |
|---|---|---|---|
| program_cap | $175,059 | $100,000 cap | 1.8x, $75,059 over |
| gross_leverage | 1.730x | 1.50 red / 1.30 amber | red |
| net_cash / NLV | -0.072 | -0.05 amber / -0.10 red | amber |
| uncapped_shorts | 0 uncapped, 10 GOOG short / 10 long and 30 GOOGL short / 38 long | every short leg capped | clear, and measured this run |
| price trigger | now | fires at | distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG · tranche 2 weakness (the quote the script reads) | $330.85 | ≤ $317 | 4.2% down |
| GOOGL · tranche 2 weakness | $333.99 | ≤ $317 | 5.1% down |
| GOOGL · tranche 3 confirm | $333.99 | ≥ $360 | 7.8% up |
| GOOG · tranche 3 confirm | $330.85 | ≥ $360 | 8.8% up |
| GOOGL · thesis break, close regardless | $333.99 | ≤ $280 | 16.2% down |
| GOOGL · Rule 8 crash powder / washout buy | $333.99 | ≤ $260 | 22.1% down |
| GOOGL · Rule 6, close every short put | $333.99 | ≥ $434 | 29.9% up |
| MU · roll the collar | $931.09 | ≥ $1,250 | 34.2% up |
| GOOGL · long spreads near max, sell-or-hold test | $333.99 | ≥ $500 | 49.7% up |
| GOOGL · shares capped by the 600Cs | $333.99 | ≥ $600 | 79.7% up |
| level trigger | now | fires at | distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec-28 30-delta put IV | 35.4% | > 43% | +7.6 pt |
| Dec-28 put IV · Part 3 crash trigger | 35.4% | > 50% | +14.6 pt |
| GOOGL Dec-28 340P extrinsic | $52.76 | < $5 | +$47.76 |
| 11x Dec-28 300/400 call spread, % of width | 40.5% | >= 90% | +49.5 pt |
| 8x Sep-27 300/440 call spread, % of width | 36.8% | >= 90% | +53.2 pt |
| 10x Dec-28 350/500 call spread, % of width | 28.1% | >= 90% | +61.9 pt |
| Excess liquidity / NLV | 74.90% | < 40% amber | +34.9 pt |
| NLV change over one week | -2.90% | -8% in a week = 72h freeze | +5.1 pt |
| calendar | date | away |
|---|---|---|
| Wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 GOOG loss lots | 2026-09-17 | 16d |
| Q3 print, the first scheduled adjudicator | 2026-10-28 | 57d |
| Deploy the $100k reserve at market if no crash by then | 2026-10-29 | 58d |
| First GOOG vest collar leg (leg 9, +66 sh) | 2027-03-13 | 193d |
| last | day | |
|---|---|---|
| GOOG | $330.85 | -1.4% |
| GOOGL | $333.99 | -1.6% |
| MU | $931.09 | -2.9% |
| AMZN | $254.20 | -2.1% |
| BRK B | $501.87 | -0.4% |
| DIS | $106.27 | -1.2% |
| EQT | $55.62 | +2.7% |
| INTC | $88.51 | -1.1% |
| META | $579.85 | +1.3% |
| NVDA | $217.15 | -1.6% |
| RDDT | $145.17 | -1.8% |
| TSLA | $355.61 | -3.4% |
| VOO | $699.49 | -0.8% |