2026-08-20 · open

The same four rails as every run since Sunday, all unchanged. Nothing new broke, the runbook swept clear, and the GPU intraday capture is unstuck.

What to do

280P x5 sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one spread, limit, day · ~$19,269 debit ($38.54 net per spread at open marks)
Your playbook: “long leg never above $260 (must sit at/above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230 where protection stops paying before history bottoms)”
The 8x Dec-28 300P also trip this rail and are the separate matter. No order is proposed against them.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.
rail now limit
program_cap $175,059 $100,000 cap 1.8x, $75,059 over
gross_leverage 1.742x 1.50 red / 1.30 amber red
net_cash / NLV -0.069 -0.05 amber / -0.10 red amber

rail	now	limit
program_cap	$175,059	$100,000 cap	1.8x, $75,059 over
gross_leverage	1.742x	1.50 red / 1.30 amber	red
net_cash / NLV	-0.069	-0.05 amber / -0.10 red	amber

Why each one reads the way it does

program_cap
Identical to yesterday to the dollar, and that is the expected reading. Defined max loss is a function of strikes and entry credits, not of current marks, so it moves only when a position actually closes. Nothing closed.
gross_leverage
The IPS row this proxies measures total DELTA notional / NLV at ~1.2x; this rail measures GROSS position value. rails.json carries the note '1.57 at signing on gross; true delta leverage ~1.0x'. A red here is not the same statement as the policy row being red.
net_cash / NLV
Cash is -$97,114 on NLV $1,399,787. Signed at -14.8% and already red that day, so this is the improved end of a known accepted state, not a new break.

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is tranche 3 confirm at $360, 5% away.
No position moved more than 5% today. Biggest was 2.2%.

All 14 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL · tranche 3 confirm	$342.69	≥ $360	5.0% up
GOOGL · tranche 2 weakness	$342.69	≤ $317	7.5% down
GOOGL · thesis break	$342.69	≤ $280	18.3% down
GOOGL · crash / Rule 8	$342.69	≤ $260	24.1% down
GOOGL · Rule 6 close shorts	$342.69	≥ $434	26.7% up
MU · collar roll	$948.42	≥ $1,250	31.8% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Dec-28 30-delta put IV	36.4%	> 50%	+13.6 pt
excess liquidity / NLV	75.1%	< 40%	-35.1 pt
widest long call spread	42.0%	>= 90% of width	+48 pt
Dec-28 340P extrinsic	$58.90	< $5	far
largest 1-day move	2.2%	>= 5%	+2.8 pt

calendar	date	away
wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 loss lots	2026-09-17	28d
deploy the $100k reserve at market regardless	2026-10-29	70d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9	2027-03-13	205d

Spot prices

	last	day
GOOG	$339.72	-0.6%
GOOGL	$342.69	-0.6%
MU	$948.42	+1.2%
NVDA	$219.03	+0.7%
META	$547.35	+0.2%
AMZN	$263.12	-1.0%
RDDT	$148.45	-2.1%
INTC	$91.78	-1.1%
VOO	$705.35	-0.2%
BRK B	$497.90	-0.3%
EQT	$54.50	+1.6%
TSLA	$343.35	-2.2%
DIS	$108.17	+1.2%

What other people said

Bernstein on GOOGL: maintains hold, target cut, $390 -> $385.
Rosenblatt on GOOGL: reiterates buy, $410.
8 new calls filed, none came due to score.
MU consensus disagrees 24% between the low and high source on the same morning. No single consensus print should be read as the number.

Every call filed today

who		action	target	when
Bernstein · Mark Shmulik No thesis text on the page, only the structured rating row. None recorded.	GOOGL	Maintains Hold, target cut	$390 -> $385	today 11:10 ET
Rosenblatt · Scott Devitt Table row only, +18.94% upside stated. No thesis text.	GOOGL	Reiterates Buy	$410	today
Envision Research · Lucas Ma Berkshire's 45% Q2 add signals fundamentals improving faster than price. ROCE ~57%, FY1 P/E 16.5x as the cheapest MAG 7, total annual ROI ~14.4%. Record $44.9B quarterly capex and negative FCF named as the risk. Full body read.	GOOGL	Bullish, no target	-	8/19
Envision Research Valuation risk eased after a 20% correction. Receivables surging, inventory slightly DOWN YoY, DIO below long-term averages. EV/sales still extremely elevated vs sector norms and past cycle peaks. Paywall-truncated.	MU	Upgrade to Hold	-	8/18
Dustin Quasney A Jan-2028 deep-ITM-long-call plus short-OTM-call structure claimed to capture 92% of upside with downside capped at $5,300 against $100,000 for shares. Strikes sat behind the paywall and are not recorded.	MU	Options structure	-	8/19

consensus	source	target	analysts
GOOGL	stockanalysis	$428.07	64	median $429, range $340-$515, Strong Buy
GOOGL	marketbeat	$420.19	54	up $0.33 from the 8/12 reading
GOOGL	finviz	$426.68	-	up $0.28 from 8/13, recom score 1.27
MU	marketbeat	$1,259.97	37	first MarketBeat baseline for MU
MU	stockanalysis	$1,502.00	46	unchanged from 8/17
MU	finviz	$1,565.79	-	unchanged from 8/17

Cost of compute

H100 spot $2.67 against the $2.82 monthly composite. No tripwire.
Read today's H100 day-change as capture timing, not signal: the Vast median swung between $1.73 and $6.35 inside 24 hours, which is why the 24-hour average reads $4.83 against a $2.67 spot print.
The -20%/90d test needs history the daily series does not have yet and cannot fire before mid-November.

Every rate, per chip and per source

Dollars per GPU-hour. Vast is a marketplace floor and runs well below contract rates, which is what the cloud and hyperscaler columns are there to show. Bold rows are current generation.

	vast	cloud	hyper	akash	n
H100 SXM	$2.67	$4.24	$7.89	$2.71	14
H200	$4.58	$4.50	$10.44	$4.45	10
B200	$8.38	$6.37	$7.05	-	13
H100 NVL	$2.49	-	-	-	2 thin
A100 SXM4	$0.96	$2.00	$3.67	$1.67	36
A100 PCIE	$0.94	-	-	-	29
L40S	$0.47	-	-	-	15
RTX 5090	$0.40	-	-	-	64
RTX 4090	$0.34	-	-	-	64

H100 by source. SFCompute clearing price $2.06. Composite is $2.82 as of 2026-04 (PRE-SIGNAL tightening; latest print checked 2026-08-18).

source	now	24h avg	day
vast median	$2.67	$4.83	-33.4%
sfcompute	$2.06	$2.04	+3.0%
getdeploying	$4.24	-	+0.0%
akash	$2.71	$2.71	+0.0%

The check itself

fixed today GPU intraday capture was 10.7h stale.
Last row 2026-08-19T19:56, then nothing at the 22:56, 01:56 and 04:56 slots. The LaunchAgent is loaded and its last two runs exited clean, so the job is not broken - the Mac was asleep, and StartInterval does not fire while it sleeps. Ran gpu_spot.py --intraday manually, a fresh 06:40 row landed, health check now clear.
will happen again The same job will go stale every night the machine sleeps.
Today's fix was manual. The plist wants either a wake schedule or a catch-up run wired into the 6:35 job.
never worked Runbook Part 3 'NLV falls 8%+ in one week' has never been evaluable.
No NLV series is persisted anywhere, only the current summary snapshot. Every run since the runbook was written has swept past this row without testing it. Logging NLV into rails-log.jsonl would close it.
source broke DuckDuckGo HTML search is now CAPTCHA-walled.
Returns a 202 anomaly page. New failure mode for the WSB discovery route. old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search did work headlessly and is the replacement worth documenting.

Rails that could not be evaluated

stressed_excess_liquidity - needs IBKR Risk Navigator (-30% price, +50% IV) with the TWS gateway up. Never yet measured.
top2_name_delta_ratio - needs per-leg option deltas, which summary.json does not carry. ~0.90 at signing and already red.
short_dec28_340p_extrinsic - the rails entry wants a live Dec-2028 chain pull; the position mark gives $58.90 against the <$5 watch.
No qualifying r/wallstreetbets post for either ticker in the window, verified by date rather than assumed from a failed search.

Where the numbers came from

IBKR connector: get_account_positions, get_account_summary, 13 get_price_snapshot calls plus the Dec-28 340P IV
scripts/investing/rails.py against investing/rails.json
scripts/investing/gpu_spot.py daily and --intraday
investing/googl-mu-runbook.md Parts 2-4
stockanalysis.com, marketbeat.com, finviz.com, seekingalpha.com via Chrome, old.reddit.com search